IEA Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast to 1 Million bpd Decline in June Report

According to the IEA monthly report released in June, global oil demand is now forecast to decline by 1 million barrels per day in 2026, revised down from a previous estimate of 1.1 million bpd. Global oil supply is projected to decrease by 3.7 million bpd, compared to the prior forecast of 3.9 million bpd.

Supply increased by 4.1 million bpd in June following the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though it remains 9.4 million bpd below pre-conflict levels. U.S.-Iran tensions pose risks to the 2027 oversupply outlook, while slower refinery responses have tightened fuel markets amid peak summer demand.