Huatai Macroeconomic Raises Fed July Rate Hike Probability Above 50%, Ahead of FOMC Meeting

According to Huatai Macroeconomic Research released on July 29, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July is above 50%, higher than current market pricing of around 40%. Under the base case scenario, the probability of a rate hike before September is near 100%. The research notes that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy stance has shifted market expectations from dovish rate cuts to a more hawkish near-term positioning following his appointment.
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