Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday. The legislation would bar Congress members, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on prediction markets tied to policy outcomes, government actions, or elections. Steil stated the bill aims to prevent elected officials from profiting off insider information they access before the public. The measure follows broader federal scrutiny of prediction market platforms, including a Senate resolution passed in April that banned member and staff wagering, and House Oversight Committee investigations opened in May into Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged insider trading patterns.
Bill Establishes $2,000 Minimum Penalty for Violators
Under the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. Lawmakers could not use official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances, or campaign donations to cover the fines. Those who leave office without paying could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
Chairman Steil stated in a release: "The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen. This legislation is critical to restoring the public's trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome."
Steil's office said the legislation builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the House Administration Committee advanced in January.
House Committee Advanced Related Stock Trading Ban in January
Steil told reporters earlier this month that he intended to add similar restrictions to a separate, broader bill banning congressional stock trading. That bill, as written, would already bar lawmakers, spouses, and dependents from buying new stocks and would penalize violators with comparable fines. The stock-trading bill has stalled since clearing committee in February, though Steil has expressed hope the House could vote on it this summer.
Federal Agencies Launched Investigations Following April Arrest
The Senate passed a resolution in April barring its own members and staff from using prediction markets. The House Oversight Committee opened investigations in May into Kalshi and Polymarket over what its chairman described as a pattern of insider trading on the platforms.
These actions followed the April arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was accused of using confidential information to fuel a series of Polymarket bets around the January removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, netting over $400,000 in profits. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to the charges. The trial is set for December.
FAQ
What does the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act prohibit?
The bill bars members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions, or election results.
What penalties do violators face under the bill?
Violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. Lawmakers cannot use official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances, or campaign donations to cover fines, and those leaving office without paying could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
Why did federal agencies investigate prediction market platforms?
The House Oversight Committee opened investigations in May into Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged insider trading patterns, following the April arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was accused of using confidential information to place bets on Polymarket related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's removal in January.
