Hanmi Pharmaceutical is forecast to achieve Q2 2026 operating profit of 124.1 billion won, more than double the prior year, driven by a $75 million upfront payment from Eli Lilly for a technology transfer deal completed last month. The one-time payment from the licensing agreement for sonepeglutatide, a short bowel syndrome treatment candidate, will be recognized in Q2 earnings. However, analysts note that excluding this upfront payment, the company's operating profit would fall below market consensus at approximately 42.5 billion won, as its Beijing subsidiary faces headwinds from China's centralized drug procurement policy and domestic product portfolio growth remains modest.
Hanmi Pharmaceutical Q2 2026 Forecast Shows 105% Operating Profit Growth
According to Yonhap Infomax consensus data compiled on the 15th, eight major domestic securities firms that issued reports within the past month project Hanmi Pharmaceutical will record consolidated revenue of 461.2 billion won and operating profit of 124.1 billion won in Q2 2026. This represents a 27.66% increase in revenue and a 105.46% increase in operating profit compared to the same period last year.
The exceptional earnings are attributed to the upfront payment from Eli Lilly. Hanmi Pharmaceutical signed a technology transfer agreement with the US pharmaceutical company last month for sonepeglutatide, a short bowel syndrome treatment candidate. The total contract value reaches $1.26 billion (approximately 1.897 trillion won), with the non-refundable upfront payment of $75 million (approximately 112.9 billion won) expected to be recognized in Q2 2026 earnings.
Operating Profit Estimated at 42.5 Billion Won Excluding Eli Lilly Payment
Excluding the upfront payment, Hanmi's operational performance appears less robust. Hana Securities estimates Q2 revenue at 379.1 billion won and operating profit at 42.5 billion won excluding the upfront payment, stating "profit will likely fall below existing consensus."
The company's Beijing Hanmi subsidiary is expected to post weak results as China's centralized drug procurement system continues to adjust drug distribution and pricing. Kim Min-jung, analyst at DS Investment & Securities, forecasts Beijing Hanmi revenue of 86.8 billion won, representing only a 0.1% increase year-over-year, noting "the impact of the centralized procurement system is intensifying and negatively affecting performance."
On a standalone basis, Hanmi Pharmaceutical's existing products including Rosuzet show steady growth, but analysts assess that synergies from co-promotion arrangements for major products are not yet evident. Technology fee income outside the Eli Lilly deal remains minimal.
Epeglenatide Launch and Pipeline Results Expected in H2 2026
Market attention is shifting to the second half of 2026. Seasonal sales are expected to increase overall starting in Q3 as the changing seasons begin. Epeglenatide, Korea's first domestically developed obesity drug, is scheduled for launch in H2 and is viewed as a potential catalyst for earnings recovery, as analysts anticipate revenue contribution even if initially modest.
Multiple pipeline events are scheduled. HM17321 (UCN2 agonist), described as an obesity treatment without muscle loss, is currently in Phase 1 clinical trials in the US. Efipegdutatide, a metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) treatment licensed to Merck (MSD), has completed Phase 2b trials with results pending announcement.
Wi Hae-joo, researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, stated "Efipegdutatide MASH Phase 2b results are estimated to be disclosed at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) in November," adding "considering the efficacy and safety profile confirmed in Phase 2a, the likelihood of positive results being announced is high."
FAQ
What is driving Hanmi Pharmaceutical's Q2 2026 operating profit growth?
The primary driver is a $75 million upfront payment from Eli Lilly for the technology transfer of sonepeglutatide, a short bowel syndrome treatment candidate. This one-time payment, approximately 112.9 billion won, will be recognized in Q2 2026 earnings, resulting in a 105.46% year-over-year increase in operating profit to 124.1 billion won.
How does Hanmi Pharmaceutical's performance look excluding the Eli Lilly payment?
Excluding the upfront payment, Hana Securities estimates Q2 2026 operating profit at 42.5 billion won, which would fall below market consensus. The company faces challenges including weak performance at its Beijing Hanmi subsidiary due to China's centralized drug procurement system, and modest growth in its domestic product portfolio with limited technology fee income outside the Eli Lilly deal.
When is Hanmi Pharmaceutical's epeglenatide obesity drug scheduled for launch?
Epeglenatide, Korea's first domestically developed obesity drug, is scheduled for launch in the second half of 2026. Analysts view this as a potential catalyst for earnings recovery and anticipate revenue contribution even if initially modest following the launch.
