According to a July 13 report by Korea Investment & Securities, SK hynix’s Q2 2026 forecast operating profit is 60.4 trillion won, about 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion won; forecast revenue is 80.9 trillion won (up 264% year over year), but operating profit is up 556% year over year. Analyst Min-suk Chae said that starting in Q3, HBM4 will begin full-scale mass production and sales, and the ASP increase will align with the market average.
Korea Investment & Securities Q2 Forecast: Operating Profit of 60.4 Trillion Won, Below Consensus of 65 Trillion Won
According to a Korea Investment & Securities report, SK hynix’s Q2 2026 forecast key financial metrics are as follows:
Q2 forecast revenue: 80.9 trillion won (up 264% from the same period last year)
Q2 forecast operating profit: 60.4 trillion won (up 556% from the same period last year)
Market consensus operating profit: 65 trillion won
Profit gap: about 8% below consensus
Q2 overall operating margin: expected to reach a record high of 74.6%
Q2 DRAM ASP: up about 30% quarter over quarter; NAND ASP: up about 50% quarter over quarter
Analyst Min-suk Chae said: “Because HBM’s sales share is higher than that of competitors, the ASP increase is lower than the market average. Starting from Q3, once HBM4 begins full-scale mass production and sales, the ASP increase will remain consistent with the market average.”
Operating profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 cut by 9% and 11%
According to the report, Korea Investment & Securities cut its forecast for SK hynix’s operating profit for this year by 9% and for 2027 by 11%. Chae Min-suk emphasized, “This is not due to concerns about earnings, but because the signed long-term agreements (LTA) make the price assumptions more realistic.”
He also noted that as the memory industry shifts to a long-term agreement structure spanning 3–5 years, a company’s value depends on how long its high profitability can be sustained—not on quarterly ASP growth rates. The expansion of LTAs is reducing the volatility of earnings that has long been a weakness of the memory industry.
Outlook for long-term profitability: HBM4 mass production; capacity-allocation constraints limit competitor supply
According to Korea Investment & Securities’ report, SK hynix’s maintenance of long-term profitability rests on the following points: starting in Q3, HBM4 begins full-scale mass production, and the ASP increase will revert to the market average; expanding contracted sales share makes revenue more predictable; and because increased HBM output leads to capacity being occupied (Capa), the shortage of supply for traditional memory products persists.
The report’s conclusion states, “What needs attention now is the sustainability of revenue,” adding that the expansion of long-term licensing agreements is systematically reducing earnings volatility in the memory industry.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much profit does Korea Investment & Securities forecast for SK hynix’s Q2, and why is it below market consensus?
According to the Korea Investment & Securities report, SK hynix’s Q2 2026 forecast operating profit is 60.4 trillion won, about 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion won. The main reason is that HBM’s sales share is higher than that of competitors, resulting in an ASP increase that is below the market average.
When will SK hynix’s ASP issue improve?
According to analyst Min-suk Chae, after HBM4 begins full-scale mass production and sales starting in Q3, SK hynix’s ASP increase will stay aligned with the market average.
Does Korea Investment & Securities’ cut to earnings forecasts mean SK hynix’s business has problems?
According to the report, analyst Min-suk Chae clearly stated that the cut to earnings forecasts for this year and 2027 by 9% and 11% is not due to concerns about earnings, but because the signed long-term agreements (LTA) make the price assumptions more realistic. The Q2 overall operating margin is expected to reach a record high of 74.6%, and it is also expected to continue delivering stable quarter-over-quarter growth.
