Grayscale Research predicted AAVE token could surge 140% to approximately $175 over the next year, according to a report published June 17. The analysis comes as Aave's native token has declined 71% over the past year, with Grayscale attributing the potential upside to the protocol's strong market position in decentralized finance lending. Grayscale's valuation relies on discounted cash flow analysis and fintech industry multiples, projecting Aave protocol will earn roughly $60 million in 2026 despite recent headwinds across the DeFi lending sector.
Grayscale Projects AAVE Fair Value at $80-$100
Grayscale estimates AAVE's current fair value at $80 to $100, compared with its market price near $73. The valuation is based on traditional discounted cash flow analysis and price multiples against comparable financial companies. The firm expects the Aave protocol to earn roughly $60 million in 2026.
"Despite recent headwinds, we think the protocol will earn $60 million in 2026; typical fintech multiples (20x-25x) would imply a current fair value market cap of $1.2 [billion]-$1.5 [billion]," Grayscale stated in the report.
AAVE is the native token of the Aave decentralized lending protocol, which allows users to supply crypto assets to earn yield and borrow against posted collateral. The protocol uses smart contracts to pool liquidity, set borrowing terms, manage collateral, and liquidate undercollateralized positions. Aave is structured as a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), with token holder governance managing protocol decisions and capital allocation.
AAVE Down 71% Over Past Year
Aave's native token has been down 71% over the past year, 48% year to date, and 13% over the past month. At press time, it was down 3.4% to change hands near $73 as per Decibel.
Aave Holds Leading Share of $59B DeFi Deposits
Aave's market position remains strong, according to Grayscale. The firm pointed to more than $59 billion in deposits and $25 billion in loans outstanding across DeFi, with Aave holding a leading share of deposits, loans and user activity. The protocol reportedly averages nearly 200,000 monthly users.
Grayscale believes Aave's structure has made it one of decentralized finance's clearest comparisons to a traditional financial company. While Aave is often described as a permissionless onchain bank, Grayscale noted that it is not a traditional business due to its DAO governance model.
Multiple DeFi Lending Protocols Shut Down in 2026
Crypto lending is a brutally tough business. In 2026, multiple lending protocols shut shop. ZeroLend, a multichain lending protocol, wound down in February, citing sustainability challenges and prolonged operating losses. NFT lending pioneer NFTfi also announced it would cease operations by August 31 after revenue fell below operating costs.
Grayscale said Aave's future upside depends on DeFi lending competition, clearer regulation and successful growth in stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. The regulatory question remains especially important for DAOs. Grayscale said the AAVE token may be considered a "network asset" under the CLARITY Act framework if the bill becomes law.
FAQ
What price target did Grayscale set for AAVE token?
Grayscale predicted AAVE token could rise to approximately $175 over the next year, according to a report published June 17. This represents roughly 140% upside from current levels near $73.
How much has AAVE declined over the past year?
Aave's native token has been down 71% over the past year, 48% year to date, and 13% over the past month. At press time, it was down 3.4% to change hands near $73 as per Decibel.
What is Aave's current market position in DeFi lending?
Grayscale pointed to more than $59 billion in deposits and $25 billion in loans outstanding across DeFi, with Aave holding a leading share of deposits, loans and user activity. The protocol reportedly averages nearly 200,000 monthly users.
