Gold Falls 11.72% in Q2, Rebounds to $4,068.65 in Early July

According to EJFQ, gold prices rebounded to $4,068.65 per ounce in early July after falling 11.72% in June, marking the steepest monthly decline since October 2008. The precious metal has declined 27.97% from its peak and formed an "ultimate death cross" technical pattern on June 26, when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day line for the first time since September 2023.

Historical data suggests the death cross is a lagging indicator rather than a bearish signal. Over the past 50 years, the ultimate death cross has preceded positive returns in recent decades, with gold typically bottoming within 7–10 trading days. Gold is currently in a four-month consecutive decline, historically a sign of extreme oversold conditions preceding rebound. Data from 1973 onwards shows that after experiencing four or more consecutive monthly declines, gold posted gains in the following two months nearly 70% of the time, with an average return of 1.72%. July, August, and September are traditionally strong months for gold, with August and September showing winning probability around 56.6%. Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target of $4,900 per ounce, while UBS forecasts gold could rally to $5,200 within 12 months.