Gary Black Questions SpaceX's 150x Valuation Multiple After $650B Stock Selloff Since Peak

According to Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black, SpaceX (SPCX) shares trading at roughly 150 times projected 2026 enterprise value-to-EBITDA command an unjustifiable premium, he stated on Tuesday. Black compared SPCX with Nvidia, which trades at approximately 19 times calendar-year 2026 EV/EBITDA while delivering expected long-term revenue growth of 10% to 15% annually, versus SPCX's 35% to 40%. Using a PEG-style framework, Black argued the math does not support SPCX's current valuation.

SPCX has shed over $650 billion in market capitalization since hitting a peak of about $2.7 trillion, with shares down 3% in Tuesday pre-market trading after tanking 16% on Monday. Susquehanna initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and $170 price target, expecting SpaceX to grow revenue at an 81% compound annual rate through 2028, but cautioned current valuations already reflect aggressive assumptions. The firm recommended waiting for a more attractive entry point.