DS Investment & Securities raised its second-half KOSPI target to 9,000 on the 28th and interpreted the recent artificial intelligence stock plunge as a cyclical adjustment rather than a trend collapse. The securities firm's analysis of 282 domestic stocks found that 236 stocks, or 83%, are already in the decline phase, reaching 93% on a market capitalization-weighted basis. DS Investment & Securities explained that when the proportion of stocks in decline and death phases exceeds 90%, the market often enters a rebound zone, and current capex adjustments could create conditions for a rate-cutting cycle in the second half.
DS Investment & Securities Analyzes 282 Stocks with 83% in Decline Phase
DS Investment & Securities stated in its second-half outlook report on the 28th that individual stocks undergo a cyclical structure through four phases: birth (bottoming out), prosperity (trend continuation), decline (peak distribution), and death (trend collapse). The firm explained that 236 stocks, or 83%, of the 282 domestic stocks it analyzes are already in the death phase. On a market capitalization-weighted basis, this proportion reaches 93%.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Enter Distribution Phase on the 2nd
DS Investment & Securities determined that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix entered the decline phase on the 2nd, generating sell signals. The firm's analysis indicated that these semiconductor giants transitioned from trend continuation to peak distribution.
DS Investment & Securities Raises Second-Half KOSPI Target to 9,000
DS Investment & Securities raised its second-half KOSPI target to 9,000, interpreting the current correction as a precondition for a rebound rather than a collapse. The firm analyzed that even reflecting a worst-case scenario where earnings per share (EPS) drops 30%, the current KOSPI level represents an undervalued zone. DS Investment & Securities stated that current market skepticism should be interpreted as an adjustment phase for the next stage rather than a cycle termination, adding that because the peak was high, the trough will inevitably be deep.
Capex Adjustment Expected to Trigger Rate Cut Cycle
DS Investment & Securities explained that capex (capital expenditure) adjustments will pressure gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, leading to dollar weakness and rate declines, potentially forming entry conditions for a rate-cutting cycle after the second half. The firm projected that in a rate-decline environment, AI could lead innovation again and emerge as a leading sector after midterm elections.
FAQ
What KOSPI target did DS Investment & Securities set for the second half?
DS Investment & Securities raised its second-half KOSPI target to 9,000 on the 28th, interpreting the recent AI stock correction as a cyclical adjustment rather than a trend collapse.
How many stocks are currently in the decline phase according to DS Investment & Securities?
DS Investment & Securities' analysis of 282 domestic stocks found that 236 stocks, or 83%, are in the decline phase, reaching 93% on a market capitalization-weighted basis.
When did Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix enter the distribution phase?
DS Investment & Securities determined that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix entered the decline phase on the 2nd, generating sell signals as they transitioned from trend continuation to peak distribution.
