Deutsche Bank cut its gold price targets for the second half of 2026 by approximately 20%, citing evaporating investor demand amid concerns over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, according to research analyst Michael Hsueh in a note published Tuesday. The bank now expects gold to average $4,300 per ounce in Q3 2026, down over 22% from its prior forecast, before rising to $4,800 in Q4, representing a 17% reduction. Hsueh attributed the downward revision to Fed repricing and resilient U.S. macroeconomic data, which have played the primary role in pushing gold lower, while noting that gold-backed ETF outflows show usual investor support is notably absent.
Deutsche Bank Lowers Q3 2026 Gold Target to $4,300, Q4 to $4,800
Deutsche Bank now expects gold prices to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of the year, down over 22% from the prior outlook, before rising to $4,800 in Q4, still representing a 17% reduction from their previous forecast. "Fed repricing, together with resilient US macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower," Hsueh wrote in the research note published Tuesday.
Deutsche Bank Warns Fed Rate Hikes Could Push Gold to $3,800
Hsueh warned that the bank's fourth-quarter target is based on the expectation that the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026, but if the central bank decides to hike rates as many as three to four times, gold could fall all the way to $3,800.
ETF Outflows and Chinese Discounts Signal Weak Investor Demand
Hsueh added that ongoing outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds showed that gold's usual investor support is "notably absent," while Chinese discounts to Comex prices mean mainland imports shouldn't be expected to support the market.
Central Bank Demand Remains Strong Support Pillar
"The one pillar which remains strong is central bank demand," Hsueh said, "and we expect this to be the case for some time to come."
Deutsche Bank Projected $6,000 Gold in Mid-April Before Revision
As recently as mid-April, Deutsche Bank was projecting gold prices to reach the $6,000 per ounce range, driven by fiscal deficit concerns, de-dollarization flows, and the ongoing reallocation away from U.S. Treasuries by emerging-market central banks. On Feb. 3, Hsueh said that despite the volatility seen at the time, the gold market remained on track to hit $6,000 an ounce by the end of the year. "Gold's thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors' rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed. The conditions do not appear primed for a sustained reversal in gold prices, and we draw some contrasts between today's circumstance and the context for gold's weakness in the 1980s and 2013," Hsueh said in his report. He added that Chinese investment demand would remain a key pillar of support for gold, noting that even as Western gold prices were dropping, premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange remained elevated.
FAQ
What did Deutsche Bank revise its 2026 gold price targets to?
Deutsche Bank cut its gold price targets to $4,300 per ounce for Q3 2026 (down over 22% from prior outlook) and $4,800 for Q4 2026 (down 17% from previous forecast), according to research analyst Michael Hsueh in a note published Tuesday.
Why did Deutsche Bank lower its gold price forecasts?
Hsueh attributed the downward revision to Fed repricing and resilient U.S. macroeconomic data, which have played the primary role in pushing gold lower, while ongoing outflows from gold-backed ETFs show usual investor support is notably absent and Chinese discounts to Comex prices mean mainland imports shouldn't be expected to support the market.
What scenario could push gold prices to $3,800 according to Deutsche Bank?
Hsueh warned that if the Federal Reserve decides to hike rates as many as three to four times in 2026, gold could fall all the way to $3,800, compared to the bank's Q4 base-case target of $4,800 which assumes the Fed holds rates steady through 2026.
