CLARITY Act Passage Probability Falls from 75% to 50% in Week as Senate Calendar Tightens

According to Kalshi prediction market platform, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 fell sharply from nearly 75% to 50% over the past week. Traders cited a crowded Senate calendar, unresolved disputes over yield-bearing stablecoins, and continued banking industry resistance as major obstacles.

The decline comes less than two weeks after the Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the legislation. The CLARITY Act, which seeks to establish a federal framework for digital asset regulation and clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC, is considered one of Congress's most significant crypto-regulation efforts.