BTC edges up slightly by 0.42% over 15 minutes: progress in Iran–Israel ceasefire talks eases risk-off sentiment, and macro caution narrows volatility

From 06:15 to 06:30 (UTC) on July 29, 2026, BTC rose slightly within 15 minutes from 64,098.8 USDT to 64,398.9 USDT, up +0.42%, with an amplitude of 0.47%. The price is trading in the 64,098.8–64,398.9 USDT range. The current price is about $63,763, with a 24h rise of about 0.66%. Overall, it remains a mild bullish move within a narrow-range consolidation, but the Order Book depth is thin and trading volume is limited, suggesting low market participation.

The main drivers behind this move are easing geopolitical risk and improving macro sentiment. After nearly six months of the US–Iran conflict, a three-day pause in attack windows emerged; with Qatar and Pakistan mediating, negotiations advanced, and market risk-avoidance sentiment visibly cooled. Gold stayed near the high at $4,065/oz, strengthening the “digital gold” narrative for BTC. Meanwhile, crude oil fell from $100 to $80.61, easing risks of worsening inflation expectations and indirectly supporting Crypto market sentiment. Trump expressed optimism about the talks, further lowering the pricing of tail risks.

In addition, the technical bottom formation is gradually confirming: the cyclical downward trend appears to be maturing, and long-term oversold conditions suggest that bottoming may already be underway. At the same time, the newly formed Bitcoin Security Consortium received $15 million in funding support, boosting long-term market confidence. However, note that the current buy/sell depth ratio is only 0.49, with sell orders dominating. Near $63,763, there is a large sell wall of 0.2235 BTC, accounting for 74.7% of the total volume in the top 5 levels. With extremely shallow liquidity in the Order Book, immediate resistance may cap near-term upside.

Volatility risk remains. Tonight’s Fed interest rate decision will steer the short-term direction (expected 40% probability of a 25bp hike, 60% probability of no change). If the hike is implemented, it will create short-term pressure on BTC. Investors should watch the follow-up progress of the US–Iran ceasefire talks, whether crude oil prices return above $100, and whether BTC’s daily Filled Amount can expand to confirm the directional move. Key resistance levels to watch are $64,122 to $64,190; support levels to watch are $63,653 to $62,745.