BTC 1-hour short-term spike of 0.85%: Escalation in the Iran-Iraq conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets

From 15:00 to 16:00 (UTC) on July 20, 2026, BTC rose 0.85% over the hour. Its price range was 64,415.9 to 64,985.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.88%. The price rebounded from the low to around 64,955, edging close to the 24-hour high. Safe-haven sentiment has improved, but overall trading volume remains low, with limited market participation.

The main driver behind this move is the ongoing escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US carried out airstrikes on multiple Iranian cities for the ninth consecutive night. Iran’s president announced a “state of total war” and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical uncertainty has pushed funds toward safe-haven assets, and BTC—being a non-sovereign asset—has been favored. At the same time, the narrative that BTC, as “digital gold,” hedges against fiat currency depreciation has been reinforced in the current macro environment, and market optimism remains regarding its long-term institutional demand.

Second, a sharp one-day surge in oil prices of 3.8% to above $91 supports the BTC safe-haven narrative. However, heightened expectations for the Fed to raise rates (82% probability of a rate hike in December) have weighed on risk assets, which helps explain why the upside has been relatively modest. Continued inflows into BTC spot ETFs and the longer-term narrative of multiple countries building Bitcoin reserves have provided downside support. Still, bid depth (bid/ask depth ratio of 7.03) is weak, suggesting limited upside momentum in the short term.

With BTC nearing the 24-hour high resistance level at $65,107, watch for the risk of a short-term pullback. Key support levels to monitor are $64,167 and $63,734. If the US-Iran conflict escalates further or oil breaks above $100, safe-haven demand could be amplified, but a Fed rate hike would likely create short-term headwinds. Going forward, continue tracking geopolitical developments, spot ETF fund flows, and the DXY trend.