Bitcoin long-term “belief-driven” buyers’ holdings increased to 4 million coins, and 70% of new investors are profitable on paper

Bitfinex published on X on May 13, citing BitGo statistical data: since the end of 2025, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term “belief buyers” has increased by about 300%, reaching nearly 4 million BTC, valued at approximately $320B. Crypto data platform CEX.IO’s research also shows that among recent Bitcoin buyers who entered the market, nearly 70% are currently in unrealized profit.

Long-term holding data confirmed by Bitfinex/BitGo

According to Bitfinex, citing BitGo data that it confirmed:

Belief buyer holdings: nearly 4 million BTC (valued at approximately $320B)

Increase since the end of 2025: about 300%

Historical comparison: the strongest increase over two quarters since the COVID-19 crash in 2020

Holding composition: includes retail and institutional investors

Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan said that BitGo’s precise algorithm for defining “belief holders” has not yet been fully disclosed, but the direction of the market signals it tracks is clear.

Jameson Lopp’s addendum: dormant Bitcoin not included

Bitcoin core developer Jameson Lopp pointed out that the nearly 4 million belief holdings mentioned above do not include inactive Bitcoin that has “dormant” for more than 10 years. According to Lopp’s estimates, the number of dormant Bitcoin is approximately 5.6 million. Bitcoin’s current total circulating supply is about 20.03 million.

Strategy holdings and institutional accumulation confirmed data

Strategy (MSTR), the publicly listed company that holds the most Bitcoin globally, currently holds 818,869 BTC and has unrealized gains of about $4.6 billion on paper. Bitfinex analysts observed that an increasing amount of Bitcoin is being withdrawn from cryptocurrency exchanges and transferred to low-frequency trading holding entities, including institutional-grade whales and publicly listed companies that include Bitcoin in their balance sheets.

CEX.IO: 70% of recent buyers are in unrealized profit

According to CEX.IO research and confirmation, among recent incoming Bitcoin buyers, nearly 70% are currently in unrealized profit. CEX.IO’s analysis indicates that when most new investors have unrealized gains, their willingness to sell during minor pullbacks in the market tends to be lower—an indicator of market resilience recorded by CEX.IO.

FAQ

What is a “belief buyer,” and how does BitGo define this metric?

According to Bitfinex citing BitGo, “belief buyers” refer to long-term holding entities that hold Bitcoin and have extremely low trading frequency, including retail long-term investors and institutional investors. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan said that BitGo’s precise algorithm for defining “belief holders” has not yet been fully disclosed, but the direction of the market signals it tracks is clear.

How much of the total supply do the nearly 4 million belief holdings and 5.6 million dormant Bitcoin account for?

Based on confirmed data: belief holdings of about 4 million BTC + dormant for over 10 years of about 5.6 million BTC = about 9.6 million BTC, accounting for about 48% of Bitcoin’s current total circulating supply of about 20.03 million BTC. The sum of these two figures is based on different sources (BitGo and Lopp’s estimates), representing different categories of holdings.

Is the trend of Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges verifiable on-chain?

Bitfinex analysts recorded a structural shift in which Bitcoin continues to be withdrawn from exchanges to low-frequency trading entities, which is a confirmed trend that can be tracked using on-chain data. This observation is a record of on-chain behavior and does not represent a prediction or guarantee of future price direction.