BlockTempo released a technical analysis on June 15, pointing to a pattern that spans Bitcoin’s 16-year history: since 2010, after each bull market, the subsequent bear market has broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line calculated from $0.003 as the starting point—four cycles, with zero exceptions. Based on the current cycle, the 61.8% retracement level lands at $48,215.
Four-Cycle Fibonacci Retracement Confirmation of Historical Data
According to the CoinDesk chart data cited in BlockTempo’s analysis, since 2010, Bitcoin has gone through four complete bull-bear cycles, and the trough of each bear market has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line:
June 2011: After BTC’s first bull-market top, the bear market broke below the 61.8% retracement line
November 2013: After BTC’s second bull-market top, the bear market broke below 61.8% again
December 2017: After BTC’s third bull-market top, the bear market fell below 61.8%
November 2021: After BTC’s fourth bull-market top, the bear market broke below 61.8% once more
Four cycles, four breakouts, zero exceptions.
Calculation Method and Target Derivation for This Cycle
Inputs for the Fibonacci retracement calculation：
Starting point：$0.003 (Bitcoin’s price when it began trading publicly in February 2010)
Peak：$126,000 (the all-time high of this cycle in October 2025)
61.8% retracement level：$48,215
BlockTempo’s analysis indicates that, calculated using the current Bitcoin price of about $65,500, there is still roughly 26% of room to reach the target level; the pattern has not been triggered yet, but once it activates, the price path will point to below $48,215.
Bitcoin has fallen nearly 49% from the $126,000 historical peak to the June 8 data, and market sentiment is near the lowest level since the 2022 bear market.
Key Blind Spots Pointed Out by Analysts: Sample Size and Market Structure Changes
BlockTempo analysts clearly提出 the following limitations：
Sample size issue：The four-cycle pattern is statistically a small sample, and sample bias cannot be ruled out.
Market structure differences：The current Bitcoin market is ETF-driven, with institutional capital controlling most liquidity, and derivative strategies far exceed those of the past. Analysts note that this market maturity may cause prices to find support before the 61.8% retracement line, meaning the pattern could “fail early” in this cycle.
Analysts say that $48,215 remains a lower-bound reference level worth watching for technical analysis followers, not a deterministic target.
FAQ
Why is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement viewed as a key level?
The Fibonacci 61.8% (the inverse of the golden ratio φ) is the most widely used key support and resistance ratio in technical analysis, originating from the ratio relationship between adjacent numbers in the Fibonacci sequence. In Bitcoin’s history, BlockTempo analysts have identified the 61.8% retracement line as the price level commonly touched across the four bear markets.
Is $48,215 a certain price target?
According to BlockTempo analysts’ explanation, $48,215 is a technical reference level calculated based on historical patterns, not a deterministic forecast. Analysts explicitly state that the small sample size and the ETF-dominated market structure are the core uncertainties determining whether the pattern remains valid, and the pattern may fail early in this cycle.
Why use $0.003 as the starting point for the Fibonacci calculation?
According to BlockTempo, $0.003 is Bitcoin’s starting price when it began公开交易 in February 2010, and it is regarded as the calculation starting point for the entire price history; using this, the Fibonacci retracement levels from each bull-market peak to the present are calculated.
