Bitcoin Could Fall 30% to $44K by October–December 2026, Chinese Miner Warns Based on mNAV Signals

BTC-1.26%
According to Jiang Zhuo'er, a prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner, Bitcoin could fall 30% to around $42,000–$44,000 between October and December 2026, marking the potential bear-market bottom of the current cycle. Jiang's forecast is based on Strategy's mNAV ratio dropping to 0.72, approaching the historical low of 0.70 recorded in May 2022. The mNAV ratio compares the market value of publicly-traded Bitcoin holder MSTR shares with the net value of its Bitcoin holdings, with readings below 1 indicating deep pessimism and potential undervaluation. Jiang noted that an mNAV bottom typically precedes the actual Bitcoin price bottom by several months, citing the previous cycle when the two events were separated by roughly six months.
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