Equity research firm Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) on July 1, setting a $190 price target that represents a potential upside of more than 200% from the stock's June 30 closing price of $62.63. The rating came one day after Circle stock dropped more than 13% following the June 30 launch of Open USD (OUSD), a rival stablecoin backed by more than 140 companies, and the company's removal from several Russell Growth Indices. Bernstein cited Circle's transaction volume growth as the basis for its outlook, noting that USDC processed $5.3 trillion in H2 2026 and increased its share of transaction volume from around 40% in 2025 to around 60% so far this year.
Circle Stock Drops 13% on June 30 Following OUSD Launch and Russell Index Removal
Circle Internet Group is a crypto company best known for its USDC stablecoin, which is pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar. USDC is one of the dominant stablecoin players alongside Tether's USDT.
On June 30, a new stablecoin called Open USD (OUSD) launched with backing from more than 140 companies including BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN), Visa (NYSE: V), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), and Aptos Labs. OUSD features a revenue-sharing model.
Also on June 30, Simply Wall Street reported that Circle's stock had been removed from several Russell Growth Indices in the latest annual reconstitution, including the Russell 1000 Growth Index, Russell 3000 Growth Index, and Russell Midcap Growth Index. Funds tracking these indices can reduce their exposure to Circle stock, which could translate into low trading activity.
Following these updates, Circle stock dropped more than 13% on June 30, opening at $72.25 and closing at $62.63.
Bernstein Reiterates $190 Price Target for Circle Stock
Despite the June 30 developments, Bernstein doubled down on its Outperform rating on Circle stock in a July 1 note.
Bernstein stated that though the scale of the OUSD coalition validates stablecoins as a category, it does not immediately threaten Circle's status. The firm highlighted that though USDC holds about 28% of the USD-pegged stablecoin monetary base, its transaction volume is substantial.
Bernstein analyzed Visa onchain data and concluded that USDC has processed $5.3 trillion in H2 2026, with its share of transaction volume rising from around 40% in 2025 to around 60% so far this year. This represents a surge of approximately 140% over 2025's complete pace.
Circle has leveraged its partnership with Coinbase, which accounts for 25% of USDC held on-platform. Hyperliquid and Polymarket have also contributed to Circle's growth.
Regarding Coinbase's partnership with OUSD, Bernstein stated it believes Coinbase does not intend to move away from USDC and instead wants to expand mainstream stablecoin adoption.
Bernstein reiterated its price target of $190 for Circle stock. As the stock closed at $62.63 on June 30 and the firm released its note on July 1, the target represents an upside of more than 200%.
At press time, CRCL was exchanging hands at $65.52 intraday.
FAQ
What price target did Bernstein set for Circle stock?
Bernstein set a $190 price target for Circle stock in a July 1 note, representing a potential upside of more than 200% from the June 30 closing price of $62.63.
Why did Circle stock drop on June 30?
Circle stock dropped more than 13% on June 30 following the launch of Open USD (OUSD), a rival stablecoin backed by more than 140 companies, and the company's removal from several Russell Growth Indices.
What transaction volume data did Bernstein cite for USDC?
Bernstein cited Visa onchain data showing USDC processed $5.3 trillion in H2 2026, with its share of transaction volume rising from around 40% in 2025 to around 60% so far this year, representing a surge of approximately 140% over 2025's complete pace.
