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Bank of Japan Must Signal Hawkish Stance to Defend Yen, Market Prices Only 27% Odds for September Rate Hike

2026-07-27 14:57:41

According to Bank of America strategist Shusuke Yamada, the Bank of Japan must signal hawkish intentions to successfully defend the yen, as swap markets price only a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

Yamada noted in a report that while July rate increase odds remain extremely low, policymakers may need to guide market expectations higher for a September hike through communication. The next potential intervention threshold for USD/JPY is estimated at 165.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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