104 Economists Expect Fed Hold, Yet Traders Price 36% Chance of Rate Hike This Wednesday

According to Reuters and FactSet, 104 economists surveyed in mid-July expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its decision this Wednesday. However, traders tell a different story. Fed funds futures show a 36% probability of a rate hike, up from just 13% a week prior, signaling sharp market uncertainty.

Bitcoin traded near $64,915 on Monday, as rising Treasury yields and elevated oil prices (Brent crude at $100.69, up over 30% this month) have weighed on risk assets. The two-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.33%, exceeding the Fed's own 3.75% rate ceiling, suggesting bond traders are already positioning for potential rate increases later in 2026.