On May 26, Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, confirmed that he is maintaining the bank’s 12-month gold price target of $6,000 per ounce (first set in January 2026). He also noted that gold faces near-term pressure as the Middle East war pushes up energy prices, prompting repricing of inflation risks, and as expectations for Fed rate cuts decline. However, the mid-term bullish logic remains unchanged.
美銀的黃金多頭框架：三個已確認的結構性驅動因素
Widmer 在 2026 年 1 月設定 6,000 美元目標並在 5 月 26 日重申時，援引以下三個結構性支撐因素：
央行購金加速：全球央行年購金量已超過 1,000 噸，是 2022 年前年均量的兩倍以上。這一趨勢的轉折點是 2022 年 2 月西方制裁凍結俄羅斯外匯儲備後，非西方央行將境內持有黃金視為更安全的儲備資產，加速了增持。美銀估計，2025 年全球央行黃金購買量達到 900-950 噸。
機構配置嚴重偏低：HNW 投資者目前黃金配置僅佔其資產的 0.5%，機構層面的黃金持倉同樣相對偏低，意味著即使配置比例小幅提升也可能帶來顯著需求增量。
黃金供應端收緊：美銀預計，北美 13 家主要黃金礦商的 2025 年產量將較前年下降 2%，平均全維持成本（AISC）預計上升 3% 至約每盎司 1,600 美元，供應面壓力對金價形成結構性支撐。
主要機構黃金目標價確認彙總
根據已確認的機構聲明，以下為 12 個月（或年底）黃金目標價：
摩根大通：6,300 美元/盎司
瑞銀：6,200 美元/盎司
美國銀行：6,000 美元/盎司（Widmer，2026 年 5 月 26 日重申）
高盛：5,400 美元/盎司（上調自前期約 4,900 美元目標）
常見問題
Why does falling expectations for Fed rate cuts create short-term pressure for gold?
Gold is a non-yielding asset, so the opportunity cost of holding it is directly tied to real interest rates. When the market expects the Fed to cut rates later or by a smaller magnitude, the expected real yields on fixed-income assets such as U.S. Treasuries rise, reducing gold’s relative appeal in the short term and potentially driving capital from gold into fixed-income assets. In his May 26 statement, Widmer specifically attributed the near-term pressure to the Middle East war raising energy prices, which triggered a repricing of the market’s ongoing inflation-risk outlook, thereby lowering expectations that the Fed will cut rates multiple times in 2026. This near-term pressure does not conflict with Bank of America’s mid-term bullish framework (central bank gold purchases, with HNW allocation skewed low)—the latter operates over a longer time horizon.
全球央行購金行為在 2022 年前後為何出現如此顯著的轉變？
2022 年 2 月俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，美國和西方盟友將俄羅斯存放在西方金融機構的約 3,000 億美元外匯儲備予以凍結。這一前所未有的制裁行動向全球非西方央行傳遞了一個信號：以美元計價並存放於外國機構的外匯儲備存在被凍結的地緣政治風險，而以實物形式在本土持有的黃金則不存在類似的政治對手方風險。Widmer 確認，這一事件直接促使包括中國、印度、中東和東南亞等地區央行加速增持黃金，帶動年度央行購金量突破 1,000 噸的歷史新高。
How does the difference in time benchmark between Bank of America’s “12-month target” and other institutions’ “year-end target” affect numerical comparisons?
This is an important technical detail to keep in mind when reading institutional gold price targets. Bank of America’s $6,000 target is a “12-month” forward-looking target—counting from the time it was set in January 2026 to around January 2027; if counted from the May 26 reaffirmation, it would be around May 2027. Other institutions’ “year-end targets” usually refer to the end of December 2026. Therefore, even when using the same target price level (such as $6,000 or higher), the achievement timing across institutions may differ by 6–12 months, so direct comparisons must account for these differences in time benchmarks. When interpreting, you should focus on the specific target time window explicitly indicated by each institution, rather than comparing the numbers alone.
