Bank of America Lists Peace Deal Winners: Bitcoin Down 27%, Emerging Currencies to Rally

According to Bank of America chief strategist Michael Hartnett, if a U.S.-Iran peace agreement is reached, consumer stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), European equities, Bitcoin, gold, and emerging market currencies stand to benefit most. Hartnett highlighted that emerging market currencies like the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah show the strongest rebound potential after suffering significant losses this year, with the rupee down 5% and rupiah down 6.5% against the U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin has declined 27% year-to-date and gold roughly 2%, both facing pressure from dollar strength but positioned for reversal after recent deleveraging, according to BofA. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ-US) reached a new high this week, up 9% year-to-date, while consumer discretionary stocks have recovered over 10% from April lows. However, Hartnett maintained a cautious near-term stance, noting BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator at 8.8 out of 10 continues signaling sell pressure.