Amazon AI executive Peter DeSantis predicted on Wednesday that the first commercially useful quantum computers will be available within five to seven years. DeSantis, who leads a new Amazon organization focused on AI models, chips, and quantum computing, told CNBC the technology will then grow in a pattern similar to Moore's Law advancement in semiconductors. The quantum computing field has become increasingly competitive, with tech giants including Microsoft, Google, and IBM developing the technology alongside numerous startups.
DeSantis Predicts Moore's Law-Style Growth for Quantum Computing
DeSantis, who is a few months into his role leading the new Amazon organization, stated his belief that commercially useful small-scale quantum computers will emerge within the five-to-seven year timeframe. "From there, we're going to see something that looks a lot like Moore's Law, where they're going to get bigger and bigger every year, and they're going to be able to tackle more and more interesting problems," DeSantis told CNBC. Moore's Law refers to the idea that the number of transistors on a computer chip doubles every two years, leading to more powerful semiconductors over time. DeSantis' comments represent the first timeline forecasts delivered by Amazon regarding useful quantum computing.
Quantum Computing Fundamentals Explained by Amazon Executive
DeSantis clarified a common misconception about quantum computing capabilities. "One of the misnomers is a quantum computer is going to be a faster computer, that's not it at all. A quantum computer is going to solve a very particular type of problem that isn't solved well today with a classic computer, and it's going to solve it much better," DeSantis said. In classical computing, information is stored in bits that are either one or zero. Quantum computing uses quantum bits or qubits which can be zero, one, or something in between.
Tech Giants Offer Varying Timelines for Quantum Breakthroughs
DeSantis' five-to-seven year timeline falls in the middle range of various forecasts from other technology companies. In March last year, a Google quantum executive told CNBC the technology is only five years away from running practical applications that can't be calculated on modern computers. Microsoft believes it will have a commercially viable quantum machine by 2029. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rocked quantum stocks last year when he said 15 years would "probably be on the early side" for useful quantum computers, though Huang later walked back those comments. Last year, Amazon unveiled Ocelot, its quantum computing chip designed to tackle the problem of error correction, a key challenge in the realm of quantum.
Amazon Executive Identifies Chemistry and Material Science as First Applications
"The problems that I would think are going to be tackled first are the ones that are quantum-based problems, so things like chemistry, material science," DeSantis said Wednesday. "These are the problems where today we cannot run high enough fidelity simulations in a classic computer, and once we have a quantum computer, we're going to find some real progress," he said. Quantum computing proponents claim the technology will be able to solve problems that current computers cannot.
FAQ
What timeline did Amazon's AI executive give for commercially useful quantum computers?
Peter DeSantis, Amazon's AI executive, predicted on Wednesday that the first commercially useful quantum computers will be available within five to seven years. He stated that after this initial emergence, the technology will grow in a pattern similar to Moore's Law, with quantum computers getting bigger every year and able to tackle more interesting problems.
How does quantum computing differ from classical computing according to DeSantis?
DeSantis explained that quantum computing is not about creating faster computers. Instead, quantum computers will solve very particular types of problems that aren't solved well with classic computers, and they will solve them much better. Classical computing stores information in bits that are either one or zero, while quantum computing uses qubits which can be zero, one, or something in between.
What applications did DeSantis identify as first targets for quantum computing?
DeSantis said Wednesday that the first problems to be tackled will likely be quantum-based problems in areas like chemistry and material science. He noted these are problems where current classic computers cannot run high enough fidelity simulations, and quantum computers will enable real progress in these fields.
