Gate News, March 19 — According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a Smart Money address with a 69% win rate and 502 trades on a geopolitical topic invested $12,000 to buy “No” on the question “Will Ukraine agree not to join NATO this year?” Currently, the probability of “Yes” is 24%.
As the Trump administration actively promotes ceasefire negotiations, Washington may leverage military and financial aid to Kyiv as bargaining chips, pressuring Kyiv to accept a peace framework that includes a “pause” on NATO accession. Meanwhile, Russia has consistently made blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership its bottom line and core demand in negotiations.
Currently, Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO has been officially written into the constitution and forms the cornerstone of the current government’s “victory plan.” After paying a heavy toll in war, publicly signing an agreement to abandon NATO membership faces significant public opinion and political resistance within Ukraine. It is very difficult for the current government to make such concessions internally.
Note: Based on its past trading patterns, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening. Account address: 0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
CFTC Sues 5-6 States Over Prediction Market Authority at Consensus 2026
According to CFTC Chair Michael Selig at Consensus 2026, the CFTC has sued approximately five to six states, including Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, and New York, over regulatory authority of prediction markets. The core dispute centers on whether the CFTC or state regulators have jurisdiction ove
GateNews1h ago
Polymarket’s Popular Prediction: Can a Permanent Peace Agreement Between the US and Iran Be Implemented in 2026?
Can a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran be reached in 2026? Polymarket prediction markets provide a probability distribution across different time milestones, with total trading volume exceeding $78 million.
GateInstantTrends3h ago
PSG's Champions League Odds Surge to 57% on Polymarket After Semifinal Win, Up 29% in 24 Hours
According to Odaily Seer monitoring Polymarket data, Paris Saint-Germain's odds to win the Champions League rose to 57% earlier today, up 29% in 24 hours, while Arsenal's odds stand at 43%, up 1% over the same period. PSG advanced to the final after drawing 1-1 away against Bayern Munich in the Cham
GateNews4h ago
Whale Account Buys $260,000 Spurs -9.5 Spread on Polymarket Ahead of NBA Playoff Game Today
According to Odaily Seer, a 54% win-rate account (0xa2cced8bfae7d645f7f437fb76becf2fcbb70cbc) purchased $260,000 in Spurs -9.5 spread bets on Polymarket today (May 7) ahead of the NBA Western Conference semifinals Game 2 against the Timberwolves, which begins at 9:30 a.m. Beijing time. The account o
GateNews6h ago
Profitable Polymarket Account Buys $60K Position on 76ers in NBA Playoff Game 2
According to Odaily Seer, an account with over $2.2 million in lifetime gains purchased $60,000 worth of positions betting on the 76ers to defeat the Knicks in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals on Polymarket, with an average entry price of 20 cents. The position is currently
GateNews6h ago
Account With 41% Win Rate Purchases $103K Bayern Munich Victory Contracts on Polymarket Ahead of May 7 Champions League Semifinal
According to Odaily Seer, an account with a 41% historical win rate purchased $103,000 in Bayern Munich victory contracts on Polymarket on May 6 at an average entry price of 60.8 cents. The Champions League semifinal second leg between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain is scheduled for May 7 at
GateNews14h ago
