2026 World Cup knockout stage begins, Polymarket: France championship probability 23%

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup enters the knockout stage, both Polymarket and Kalshi list France as the most likely team to win. On Polymarket, France's championship probability is 23% and Argentina's is 22%; on Kalshi, France is at 20% and Argentina at 16%, with both prediction markets showing France slightly ahead of Argentina.

Polymarket: France 23%, Argentina 22%

Polymarket's full championship probability ranking: France 23%, Argentina 22%, Spain 11%, England 10%, Brazil 6%. On Kalshi, France leads at 20%, followed by Argentina at 16%, with the ranking consistent with Polymarket.

France and Argentina together account for over 45% of the total on Polymarket, reflecting the market's heavy concentration on a "two-team showdown." BeInCrypto's capital flow analysis indicates that from the group stage onward, funds have been concentrated around a few strong teams, consistent with the current market distribution.

FIFA Announces Stadium Attendance Exceeds 3.6 Million, Setting World Cup Record

FIFA has announced that total stadium attendance has exceeded 3.6 million, setting a World Cup record. This edition features an expanded 48-team format hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with the broad venue layout enabling this record. World Cup fan tokens surged after the group stage, reflecting strong demand from fans for their respective national teams.

Kalshi Partnered with ADI and PredictStreet Before the Tournament

Kalshi partnered with ADI and PredictStreet before the tournament began, expanding regulated soccer betting access for U.S. users. World Cup betting activity on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi has also drawn widespread mainstream media attention, with platforms leveraging the tournament for brand awareness.

Additionally, Sports Business Journal reports that FIFA is internally considering expanding the tournament to 64 teams in 2038; the current 48-team format has already placed considerable strain on host countries' logistics.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who are the 2026 World Cup favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi?

On Polymarket, France has a 23% championship probability, Argentina 22%, Spain 11%, England 10%, and Brazil 6%. On Kalshi, France is at 20% and Argentina 16%. Both platforms list France as the top favorite, with the two teams combining for over 45% of the total on Polymarket.

What is the 2026 World Cup stadium attendance?

FIFA has announced total stadium attendance has exceeded 3.6 million, setting a new World Cup record. This edition adopts an expanded 48-team format held across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with the broad venue layout being a key factor in this record.

How did Kalshi expand World Cup betting access for U.S. users?

Kalshi partnered with ADI and PredictStreet before the tournament began, expanding regulated soccer betting access for U.S. users.