Decrypt Test Team submits the 2026 Century Cup schedule to seven major AI models for champion predictions. The results show 4 models predict Spain to win, while 3 models predict Argentina to win. None of the seven models selected Portugal. Mainstream media outlet FOX Sports uses the quality of the “golden generation” squad and the value of betting odds as its core evaluation metrics, strongly backing Portugal to win, treating it as a high-value betting option at odds of +850.
Confirmed Champion Predictions from 7 AI Models
Claude Opus 4.8 Max (Anthropic) predicts Spain to win, with a probability of 20%. In the final, it beats France. The model factors in environmental variables such as temperature, altitude, and long-distance travel, believing these factors directly affect players’ performance. It also reduces Brazil’s championship probability to 8%.
GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) predicts Spain to win, with a probability of 15% to 18%. The final is won 2:1 over France. It uses five weighted indicators: squad strength, tactical control, finishing ability, player health, and schedule difficulty, and cross-references Opta supercomputer data.
DeepSeek v4 Pro predicts Argentina to win, with a probability of 18%. The final defeats France. It produces a 5,000-word report analyzing 48 teams; Decrypt notes that some of the coaches and roster data used by the model are somewhat outdated.
Stepfun 3.7 (Jumping Constellations) predicts Spain to win, with a probability as high as 33%, the highest among the seven models. The final features a Spain vs. Argentina showdown. It runs 50,000 simulations, relying entirely on an Elo rating system and not considering injuries or weather factors.
Nvidia Nemotron 3 Ultra predicts Spain to win, with a probability of 18% to 22%. The final beats Argentina. It first runs 5,000 simulations, then scores tactics from a subjective perspective. At the same time, it predicts Turkey as the dark horse to win Group D first, beating the host nation’s United States team.
MiniMax 2.7 predicts Argentina to win, with a probability of 18%, narrowly ahead of France. When evaluating the final, the model refuses to provide a specific scoreline or winner, concluding the outcome is 50-50.
Alibaba Qwen 3.5 (397 billion parameters) predicts Argentina to win, with a probability of 22%. The final beats Spain 2:1. It refuses to simulate matches and relies entirely on historical data analysis.
FOX Sports’ Confirmed Predictions: Portugal, Individual Awards, and the Dark Horse
FOX Sports’ evaluation core focuses on the quality of each team’s golden generation lineup and the value of betting odds, which differs from the consensus of the seven AI models.
Champion: Portugal (odds +850). FOX Sports says the midfield lineup is among the world’s best and specifically names star players such as Cristiano Ronaldo.
Predictions for Individual Awards:
Golden Boot Award: Harry Kane (England)
Ballon d’Or Award: Kylian Mbappe (France)
Golden Glove Award: Thibaut Courtois (Belgium)
Schedule and Group Predictions:
Belgium: Win all group matches
Netherlands: Finish first in Group F
Host nation Mexico: Eliminated in the round of 16
Ivory Coast: Win Group E
Morocco: Win Group C
Dark Horse Comparison: FOX Sports most favors Ecuador to reach the semifinals. Nvidia Nemotron 3 Ultra predicts Turkey will finish first in Group D.
Two New Rules Confirmed for the 2026 Century Cup
This edition of the Century Cup introduces two new rules for the first time: first, a 3-minute drinking break in each half (a stoppage during play that affects betting-odds fluctuations); second, VAR will be allowed to review the decision on a second yellow card.
Frequently Asked Questions
Among the 7 AI models, which one gives the highest probability of Spain winning?
Stepfun 3.7 from Jumping Constellations gives the highest probability of Spain winning—33%—based on 50,000 simulations, relying entirely on an Elo rating system and not factoring in injuries or weather.
Why does FOX Sports back Portugal instead of Spain, which is recommended by AI consensus?
FOX Sports’ evaluation core is the quality of the golden generation lineup and the betting-odds value. It says Portugal at odds of +850 has extremely high betting value, and that its midfield lineup is among the world’s best. This differs from the AI models’ evaluation logic, which focuses on Elo rating systems or historical win probabilities.
Which AI model refuses to make a specific prediction for the final?
MiniMax 2.7 refuses to provide a specific scoreline or winner for the final, judging the outcome as 50-50. Alibaba Qwen 3.5 refuses to run match simulations, but it still provides a final prediction that Argentina beats Spain 2:1.
