On July 16, 2026, Beijing time, SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $135.27, down 0.60% for the day, after hitting a new 52-week low of $132.15 during intraday trading. This marked the first time since its June 12 Nasdaq debut at an IPO price of $135 that the stock dipped below its offering price during trading hours.
From its first-day closing price of $160.95, to reaching an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, and now hovering near its IPO price, SpaceX has completed this round-trip in just 34 trading days. Its market cap has shrunk from a peak of approximately $2.6 trillion to about $1.77 trillion—wiping out over $1 trillion in value.
This is no ordinary price correction. At IPO, SpaceX released only about 5% of its shares for public trading, with the remaining 95% still under lockup. This low float amplified scarcity premiums on the way up—and selling pressure on the way down. In August, the first lockup expirations and the company’s first quarterly earnings report will coincide—potentially marking a key turning point as SpaceX’s valuation narrative shifts from "story-driven" to "fundamentals-anchored."
The Retreat of Scarcity Premium: Why SpaceX Shares Pulled Back from Their Highs
SpaceX’s early rally after going public was fueled by a combination of factors.
First and foremost was the extreme scarcity of tradable shares. The company issued about 555.6 million Class A common shares, representing only about 4%–5% of its total outstanding shares. This meant the actual number of shares available on the open market was extremely limited. With strong demand, even modest buying could drive prices sharply higher. Some market observers likened this structure to "5% of the chips setting the price for 100% of the company."
Second was the attention premium brought by Elon Musk’s personal brand. As one of the world’s most talked-about entrepreneurs, Musk’s influence drew significant interest from both retail and institutional investors. On its first trading day, the stock closed up 19.22%, and the company’s market cap quickly surpassed $2 trillion.
Third was the growth outlook for Starlink. As of March 2026, Starlink had over 10.3 million users across 164 countries. In 2025, Starlink generated approximately $11.4 billion in revenue, up 50% year-over-year, with operating profit around $4.4 billion. This business segment provides SpaceX with a verifiable, large-scale revenue stream.
However, as market enthusiasm faded, these supporting factors have come under scrutiny. The stock has dropped 40% from its $225.64 high, erasing over $1 trillion in market value—the market is gradually clawing back the "story premium" previously priced in. SpaceX’s valuation logic is shifting from "scarce asset" to "business fundamentals."
95% Shares Locked Up: The Double-Edged Sword of Scarcity
To understand SpaceX’s recent price swings, you need to look at its lockup structure.
SpaceX’s lockup arrangements are highly complex, involving 15 different unlock dates across three shareholder groups. At IPO, about 95% of shares were restricted from trading, leaving only about 5% of total shares available on the open market.
This structure created a positive feedback loop on the way up: scarce float → concentrated buying → rapid price increases → attracting more buyers. SpaceX’s market cap surpassed $2.6 trillion within just a few trading days after listing, a direct result of this mechanism.
But the same structure amplifies volatility on the way down. When sentiment turns and momentum buyers exit, the limited float means selling pressure is reflected more sharply in the price. Some investment firms have noted that the current trading range reflects scarcity and a lack of willing sellers, rather than a broad market consensus on the company’s value. "True price discovery requires three things: volume, a broad mix of buyers and sellers, and time. None of these are fully in place yet."
Starting in August, this scarcity structure will change significantly. The first batch of restricted shares is expected to unlock around August 10, allowing about 20% of locked-up shares to be sold. Around August 21, another 7% of fixed shares will unlock. Additional unlocks will roll out in September and October. By December 8, the cumulative tradable share ratio will rise to about 40%. Elon Musk’s personal holdings—about 6.4 billion shares—remain locked until June 2027.
The staggered unlock schedule is designed to prevent a flood of shares from hitting the market all at once and causing a shock. Even so, the steady increase in supply will put structural pressure on the share price. The scarcity premium is fading, and the market’s pricing anchor is shifting from "how many shares are available" to "how much is this company really worth."
August Earnings: From Narrative Validation to Numbers-Based Scrutiny
After the close on August 6 (Beijing time), SpaceX is expected to release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company. This report will be far more than a routine earnings disclosure—it will be the market’s first systematic test of whether SpaceX’s financial reality matches its roughly $1.77 trillion valuation.
Key areas of market focus include:
Starlink’s growth quality. In 2025, Starlink generated about $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit. Independent analysts project Starlink’s 2026 full-year revenue could grow roughly 80% to $18.7 billion. But there are concerns: Starlink’s average revenue per user (ARPU) for individual subscribers has been steadily declining from $99 in 2023. The market will be watching to see whether user growth can offset falling per-user value.
The scale and structure of losses. SpaceX posted a net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025. In Q1 2026, the company reported revenue of about $4.7 billion, but a net loss of $4.276 billion. Disclosed figures for Q2 show net losses widened further to $4.28 billion. These losses mainly stem from ongoing investment in the Starship rocket program and operating expenses for the xAI artificial intelligence business. The key question is whether these losses represent strategic investment or structural flaws—the market is far more tolerant of the former than the latter.
Cash flow and capital expenditures. In 2025, SpaceX’s capital expenditures soared to $20.7 billion, nearly double that of 2024. In Q1 2026, capex reached $10.1 billion—2.15 times quarterly revenue. While "spending far outpacing revenue" isn’t uncommon for growth companies, under the scrutiny of public markets, investors will demand a clearer path to returns.
Another unique aspect of this earnings report: it coincides with the first lockup expirations. The data will directly influence whether insiders choose to hold or sell after unlocking—a decision that will itself send a signal to the market.
Is the Valuation Still Justified? Diverging Bull and Bear Views
SpaceX’s current market cap of about $1.77 trillion equates to a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 100 (based on projected 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion). This level suggests the market has already priced in Starlink’s continued expansion, the commercialization of Starship, and the long-term integration of AI and space infrastructure.
The logic supporting the current valuation remains clear. Starlink has proven itself as a scalable, profitable satellite internet business. SpaceX combines rocket launch capabilities, a satellite network, end-user relationships, and brand recognition—an asset mix that’s hard to replicate in the short term. Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish: of the 32 analysts covering SPCX, 27 rate it a "buy" or "strong buy," with a 12-month average price target of about $240.
But the risks are equally significant. The IPO valuation already bakes in extremely high growth expectations, so any disappointment could trigger further corrections. The wave of share unlocks starting in August will significantly increase supply, and the fading scarcity premium could drag down the valuation anchor. Ongoing capital expenditure pressures mean the company is unlikely to turn a profit in the near term. Meanwhile, competition in commercial space is heating up, with rivals like Blue Origin and Rocket Lab accelerating their efforts.
UBS recently maintained its "buy" rating with a $210 price target, noting that a successful 13th Starship test flight could be a key catalyst. However, some research firms have published fair value estimates far below current prices. This divergence underscores that there is still no market consensus on SpaceX’s valuation.
Conclusion: The Shift in Pricing Power
SpaceX falling below its IPO price isn’t the end of the story—it marks a transfer of pricing power.
Over the past month, SPCX’s price has been driven mainly by scarcity, narrative, and market sentiment—5% of the float, trading on low volume, set the price for 100% of the company. Starting in August, with the first share unlocks and the release of the inaugural earnings report, pricing power will shift from "how many shares are available" to "how much is this company truly worth."
This isn’t unique to SpaceX. AI chipmaker Cerebras also fell below its IPO price after listing, and the "Magnificent Seven" of US tech stocks dropped about 9% overall in June. In this round of "AI and space narrative" valuation corrections, SpaceX is simply the highest-profile example.
Falling below the IPO price doesn’t in itself signal a long-term bearish outlook. Meta, for example, traded below its IPO price for nearly a year before staging a strong rally. But in the short term, two key events—the August earnings report and the 13th Starship test flight—will determine whether the market is willing to reprice SpaceX’s long-term story.
Until then, SPCX’s trading logic will remain in transition, shifting from a "scarcity premium" to "fundamentals anchoring."
FAQ
Q: What was SpaceX’s IPO price?
SpaceX went public on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share, for an initial market cap of about $1.77 trillion. The stock closed its first day at $160.95, up 19.22%.
Q: When do SpaceX’s lockup periods start to expire?
The first batch of shares is expected to unlock around August 10, allowing about 20% of locked-up shares to become tradable. Around August 21, another 7% of fixed shares will unlock. Elon Musk’s personal holdings—about 6.4 billion shares—remain locked until June 2027.
Q: Is SpaceX profitable right now?
Not yet. The company posted a net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025. In Q1 2026, revenue was about $4.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.276 billion. Net losses widened to $4.28 billion in Q2. Starlink is the only profitable business unit, but its profits are offset by investments in Starship and xAI.
Q: How important is Starlink to SpaceX’s valuation?
Starlink is currently SpaceX’s largest revenue driver. In 2025, Starlink generated about $11.4 billion, accounting for 61% of total company revenue. As of March 2026, Starlink had over 10.3 million users. Independent forecasts suggest Starlink’s 2026 full-year revenue could reach $18.7 billion.
Q: How do Wall Street analysts view SpaceX’s stock outlook?
Of the 32 analysts covering SPCX, 27 rate it a "buy" or "strong buy," with a 12-month average price target of about $240. Morgan Stanley has set a target of $300, while UBS targets $210. Some research firms, however, believe the current valuation is too high.
