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1/3
4Hr
$NDX still looks strong on the surface, but internals are flashing early warnings
RSI negative divergence since mid April
Friday’s RSI peak: 75.49 vs 75.62 prior high
💵Flow lower on higher prices
Heavy volume into the top
Rebalancing or not, it still matters
$Q

🧵
The Dow broke out above the 162 Fibonacci level, we've touched on this already
The next major level is the 262 Fib, 59Kish
In other words, $DJI is starting a new leg up
We see the BIGGER names running
$ORCL $MSFT $CRM

Big structural shifts happening under the radar for Critical Metals
$CRML erased its biggest drag
European Lithium’s 31% stake, constant block sale overhang is cancelled
Public float jumps, liquidity improves, & the cap table finally gets clean
This is how a real rerate starts

So many things are running
Already own these for a bit
$TMC inverse head & shoulder
Bullish if it breaks through, volume huge = +
$CLF, already broke out
Another Critical Metal is looking good $CRML
$NTLA Gene editing have been coiling for YEARS $BEAM $CRSP $CRBU $EDIT

There's talk of a huge $IBIT "dark pool sale"
Normally ETF's don't matter as they're SPOT Bitcoin
HOWEVER, @ 10:30 there was heavy selling
The buys tried to eat it up but couldn't
$BTC still has the Inverse Head & Shoulder formation going
We sold most before & are WAITING

The semiconductor index has struggled at the 262% Fibonacci level
$SOX also struggled at the 162% level
Last time the $SMH index took around 3 months & a little bit more than a 10% correction before breaking out

Look closely at the top 15 crypto right now
If someone showed you this lineup a few years ago:
$SOL $87
$ZEC $670 right outside the top 10
$HYPE in the top 10
You wouldn’t have believed them1
What’s the most surprising asset on this list today? 👇
$BTC
$ETH

Look closely at the top 15 crypto right now
If someone showed you this lineup a few years ago:
$SOL $87
$ZEC $670 right outside the top 10
$HYPE with single digit market cap
You wouldn’t have believed them.
What’s the most surprising asset on this list today? 👇
$BTC $ETH

Very, very interesting
$VIX was bumping its chest
Looked as if it was getting ready to fight
Boy, what a divergence!!!
Barring a change, TODAY, it is not ready, by any means...
Also
10Yr Yield, cooling off
Oil is also cooling off

$BTC is still in the process of forming an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern
This pattern tends to be a bottom maker and has huge Bullish tendencies

Look at volume
It's an indicator of who's buying & selling
$BTC $ETH
Both are light on buying
BUT, let's see how sells & buys do the next few days, Bitcoin still the BEST chart
In similar fashion $SOL is a bit better than $XRP
Solana is the only one with an improving $ Flow

Crude is coiling
$GUSH is respecting the coil
Futures based products $UCO $WTIU $OILU are front running a bullish resolution
Energy equities $ERX are pricing in strength regardless of crude
This divergence usually resolves with:
*Crude RIPS higher
Futures products CRASH

$SOX losing the red MA, 1st time since 3/31 it traded under

Sitting on the green MA with RSI pinned at 50 = classic neutral to vulnerable behavior
Not a breakdown, but SEMIS are no longer in control
Next few sessions decide whether this is a pause or a shift in trend
$SMH

🚨🚨🚨
$VIX RSI crossed the 50, yellow circle
Gap fill calling?
Fibonacci chart
The real battleground is 38.2 to 50%
A move into that zone fills the gap & signals rising stress
Until then, volatility stays contained
Equities sensitive here, watch reactions, not headlines

1/3
$BTC currently squeezed in a trading range between these two points
BTC closes above the red line defines a macro trend continuation toward new highs, a new expansion leg
This area holds a heavy supply of Bitcoin from trapped longs & systematic sellers

Gap Risk:
Chart highlights a noticeable gap down from previous weeks.
Delayed Spike: While $VIX is rising, its gains can appear muted relative to the equity selloff
Was hedging already priced into options premiums?
Dark pools taking into effect?

1/2
One must always recheck ideas to see if they still hold, what do we see in Bitcoin today?
What do we see today, so far?
$BTC
Friday volume picking up, it’s selling
Money Flow weaker than mid April
Negative divergence building
Broke Red MA
Mild dose of euphoria slipped in