Crypto_Xincheng

July 10 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News Front:
Macro pressure persists: U.S. macro data, geopolitical factors, and low summer liquidity impact risk assets. Recent events such as Satoshi-era whale sell-offs have increased volatility, but also show some old holders taking profits at high levels and exiting.
ETF & Institutional Dynamics: The ETF outflow trend eased in early July, with +$221 million net inflow recorded on July 2 and +$265.7 million on July 6. However, slight outflows appeared on July 8-9. June saw heavy outflows overall, while July shows a fragile rebound.
Other cataly

Many people, when trading or investing, tend to apply the same strategy to all assets: buy more when it drops 10%, add more when it drops 20%, and sell when it rises 50%. It seems like no matter what stock or coin, they do it the same way.
But that's not how it works at all.
There are only two types of assets in essence: value investing and price speculation.
Value investing focuses on intrinsic value. You buy the asset's fundamentals, long-term narrative, and growth potential. Price speculation focuses on market sentiment. You bet on short-term volatility, hot topics, and capital flows.
Two c

🔥 Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi mentioned in a YouTube interview: BTC is a generational asset, bullish on ETH and SOL!
Although the current crypto bear market is sluggish and many OGs are exiting, it is crucial to stick to long-term conviction and avoid recency bias. Crypto is essentially technology, and its value stems from growth narratives and generational wealth transfer, not current cash flow.
BTC: Generational Asset
Bitcoin is independent of cash flow, relying on social consensus and fixed supply like gold. The younger generation has a strong willingness to hold it, making i

July 9 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News:
The FOMC meeting minutes for June 16-17 released yesterday overall showed a hawkish tilt:
Officials discussed scenarios where interest rates may need to be raised if inflation fails to fall back to the 2% target in a timely manner.
Inflation forecasts were revised upward (due to tariffs and AI-related tech/electricity price pressures), reinforcing a "higher for longer" or data-dependent cautious stance.
Economic activity is solid, the labor market is resilient, but geopolitical uncertainties such as the Middle East are still mentioned.
Market

The Fed releases June FOMC minutes at 2:00 AM tonight!
June kept rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, new chair Warsh emphasized "firm control of inflation", SEP raised 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6%. Energy/tariff supply shocks + labor resilience are core
Rational scenario:
✅ Baseline (60%): Neutral-to-hawkish, inflation risk discussion dominates → BTC range-bound (62-63.5k)
✅ Dovish surprise: Sees shocks as temporary → short-term breakout above 63k+
❌ Hawkish: Stronger tightening signal → test 60k support
7/14 CPI is the highlight. Position discipline first, let data speak!
What's your take on BTC

ETH The long-short game is right before us👁
Ethereum has retraced 100 points from 1830, and is now at the long-short boundary line, testing the EMA30 line.
The MACD has also encountered resistance from the zero line, and is about to face a direction choice.
The 4H is about to pull back downward, with a pullback zone between 1685-1630. If the pullback does not break 1630, it will go up again to form a new high, creating a divergence at the 4-hour level.
So to summarize, a small-level pullback is needed. Pay attention to the support zone mentioned above. If the bulls want to continue, focus on

July 8th $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News:
Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day inflow of about $266 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone accounting for about $209 million, becoming the dominant force. This ended the continuous outflow pressure that had lasted for weeks/over 10 days (previously, weekly outflows exceeded $500 million, and cumulative pressure in June was huge).
CoinDesk and other analyses pointed out that US inflation expectations are strengthening, providing bullish support for BTC. BTC recorded its best weekly performance since March last week (weekly gain of nearly 7%).

HYPE may be nearing a temporary top 📉
Weekly level is starting to stall, with a consolidation range of 54.2-73, and topping formation is already occurring at highs
The daily chart shows three failed retests without effectively holding above 73, the rebound momentum is gradually weakening, the top is progressively lowering, and attention should be paid to divergence risks
Summary: If it doesn't break above, beware of short-term pullback risks, the lower range is around 54, with support at 61-54-38
For reference only

Has anyone else noticed something?🤔
This year, exchanges have been successively moving into traditional finance, but every time an exchange lists an asset, it pumps for a bit and then drops.📉
For example, after an exchange listed TradFi this year, gold $XAUt surged to $5,600 per ounce. Everyone was excited about breaking $6,000, but now it's dropped to $4,000.
Silver fared even worse—it shot up to 120 after listing, then fell to 60, exactly half.
Now major exchanges are listing U.S. stocks. Whoops—the U.S. stock market rallied for a bit and then took a big dive again.😂
Looking at these t

Here's the update. How much longer can Bitcoin last?🤔
Bitcoin's Ba Zi: Born on January 3, 2009
In 2027, BTC's Fire and Earth elements are mutually reinforcing, leading to a surge💥
Catastrophe (major disaster) at age 36 (2045)
$BTC Cycle Analysis:
💥Bitcoin exhibits a pattern of 1,064-day bull markets and 364-day bear markets
From the 2015 low to the 2017 high: 1,064-day bull market;
From the 2017 high to the 2018 low: 364-day bear market;
From the 2018 low to the 2022 high: 1,064-day bull market;
From the 2022 high to October 6, 2025: a total of 1,064 days of bull market;
From October 6, 202

July 7 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News/Macro Side:
Trump crypto-related news dominates sentiment: Trump publicly boasts of making billions from crypto, while many retail supporters suffer heavy losses. Although this exposes the risk of "exit liquidity," it also reinforces the politicization and mainstream adoption narrative of crypto, which is bullish in the long run.
No major negative macro black swan: Inflation expectations support risk assets, and the market is generally stable. Historical data from July 4 shows that BTC has a seasonal bias toward strength in July over the long

Opportunity is here
SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, 2026
This is a historically fast inclusion into the Nasdaq 100 Index—just about 15 trading days after the SpaceX IPO (June 12). This speed is enabled by Nasdaq’s recent rule adjustments for ultra-large new listings. This is not an ordinary event, but a major passive capital event.
This is short-term positive for SpaceX (passive capital injection + exposure), and it could bring volume and price support around July 7. For investors, it’s an opportunity to passively allocate to SpaceX.
The risk is that the valuation is too high.

Is CRCL worth buying right now?
USDC adoption, regulatory clarity, partners (such as banks, Visa, and related news), new businesses like Arc.
Risks: stablecoin competition (USDT, etc.), interest rate changes affecting reserve yields, crypto market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, recent stock price pullback pressure.
Summary: Based on data, CRCL has growth potential (analysts see significant upside + USDC fundamentals are solid), but it is a highly volatile speculative growth stock. It is recommended to pay attention to the latest earnings, USDC circulation, and regulatory news.
Support: 60

The current cryptocurrency market is in an accumulation/bear market bottom or mid-term correction phase
BTC has retraced ~50% from its October 2025 high (~$126k). Sentiment is extremely pessimistic, similar to historical bottom areas.
The peak of the bull market after the 2024 halving has passed, and we are currently in the bear market/correction phase of the 4-year cycle. The retracement depth and low AHR999 (~0.33, bottom-fishing zone) indicate attractive valuations, but it may revisit the $40-50k bottom (similar to history). Institutional/ETF demand may make this cycle shallower and shorter

July 5 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News Overview:
Core event on July 4: U.S. Independence Day holiday. Traditionally, trading volume in U.S. stocks and crypto is low, but BTC strengthened against the trend. The prediction market's implied probability for an "uptick" on the day once reached as high as 92–94%, indicating a generally bullish consensus on the holiday trend.
Macro data support: Recent U.S. employment data has been weak, cooling market expectations for aggressive short-term Fed rate hikes and benefiting risk assets (BTC, as a high-beta asset, benefits). This counterbalanc