BabyGi

Semiconductor selloff escalates, entering a technical bear market
TSMC delivers the strongest quarterly report in its history—so why has it become the fuse for a breakdown?
Last night’s close in US stocks: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% on the day, with a cumulative pullback of 22% from the mid-June peak, and a technical bear market has been confirmed. SK hynix ADRs dropped more than 13%, SanDisk (SD) fell more than 12%, and Micron’s pullback from its all-time high has already exceeded 30%. The selloff hasn’t stopped in the US market—today in Japan, Kioxia shares hit the daily

Logan calls for a rate hike, but the market still prices July as unchanged
Who’s lying—Fed officials or the market?
Logan publicly stated today that the Federal Reserve should raise rates to tackle high inflation, and she also hinted she could vote against the decision at the late-July FOMC meeting. This is the first Fed official since Wash took office to publicly call for a rate hike—essentially planting uncertainty ahead of the July FOMC, not just making casual remarks
But the market hasn’t moved at all. CME data shows the probability of rates staying unchanged in July is 88.8%, and the mark

An extremely strong El Niño is kicking in—what happens next for the next half year is terrifying
In the north, it’s ridiculously hot; in the south, it’s bitterly cold—this year’s weather has truly gone crazy~
Southern friends, pay attention: this winter you may be frozen to the point of questioning life. Don’t be fooled that it’s still mid-summer in the Chinese “sanfu” period—El Niño, the climate boss in the Pacific Ocean, is brewing a big move.
The National Climate Center has issued a warning: this year’s El Niño will develop into an extremely strong state, and may even break historical

“Selling anxiety” is something traditional industries do, while innovative sectors only “sell the good.”

China’s second-quarter GDP grew 4.3%, missing expectations
How much pressure the Chinese economy is really under this year—this number provides an answer.
Second-quarter GDP grew 4.3% year over year, below the market’s broadly expected ~5%, and also below the official full-year growth target of 5%. One quarter of data can’t explain everything, but missing expectations is itself a signal.
It’s not hard to see where the pressure comes from. On the export side, U.S. tariff barriers have been raised significantly this year, and weakness in external demand is real—not a short-term disruption. On th

DTCC launches tokenized asset live test
Do you know how many financial assets DTCC clears every day worldwide? The answer is about $2.5 trillion—every trading day.
Yesterday, DTCC kicked off the first live spot test of tokenized real assets. Not a DeFi protocol, not a crypto startup, but the settlement “heart” of Wall Street. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Vanguard, the NYSE—
Nearly 40 institutions sat at the same testing table and truly executed equity token conversion, tokenized Treasury conversion, delivery of tokenized assets, pledge/quality pledging, and margin payments.
On the same

#DTCC launches tokenized live pilot test
Do you know how many financial assets DTCC clears every day worldwide? The answer is about $2.5 trillion, every trading day.
Yesterday, DTCC kicked off the first live execution test for tokenized real-world assets. It’s not a DeFi protocol, not a crypto startup—this is the settlement heart of Wall Street. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Vanguard, the New York Stock Exchange, and nearly 40 institutions sat at the same test table and truly executed equity token conversions, treasury bond token conversions, settlement of tokenized assets, collateral qu

Silver drops 52%—against the macro backdrop, it’s actually not hard to understand
Silver pricing has long been driven by two overlapping sets of logic running at the same time: one is precious metals—safe-haven demand, hedging against inflation, and moving with gold. The other is industrial metal—solar panels, electronic components, EVs—following manufacturing demand. In bull markets, these two logics reinforce each other, pushing silver to highs, but in bear markets they also pull each other down; silver falls much harder than gold
The January peak was the result of both logics being elevated

World Cup last champion 🏆
⚽️ England 🏴 vs Argentina 🇦🇷
My view is that it will be a low-scoring match, leaning toward total goals of 2 or fewer.
Spain has just finished a 2-0 win; the psychological pressure in the semifinals already tends to suppress the number of goals. As the knockout stage goes on, the tempo gets tighter, and both sides won’t easily give up space.
🇦🇷 Argentina’s back line has been rock solid this tournament at a league-level standard, conceding very few goals. They’re not a team that wins by relentless attacking; they win by sealing up the gaps and then lookin

AI spending squeezes software; sector differentiation intensifies
SK Hynix ADR surged 27% in a single day, while IBM was down more than 20% in pre-market trading, setting its biggest-ever intraday drop. In the same day and the same AI narrative, two extremes with completely opposite directions—this kind of differentiation is inevitable after AI investing enters a mature phase.
The logic of early AI trading was “shotgun”: buy everything related to AI, because you don’t know who the winner will be, so you bet on the whole track. That logic worked in 2023 and 2024—almost the entire AI sector bene

Changxin Memory will list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27. The significance of this is not just that one company is going public—it’s a milestone in China’s semiconductor narrative.
Changxin Memory is the only company in China that can mass-produce DRAM. In the global DRAM market, three players—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—together hold more than 95% share, and this structure has not been broken for decades.
It’s not that no one has tried, but DRAM technology has extremely high barriers: process technology, yield, and cost control are all indispensable. The fact that Changxin Memory

June unadjusted CPI YoY: 3.5%, forecast: 3.80%, prior: 4.20%
The CPI data just came out, and the market already moved
bitcoin:native $63457, up 1.2%, $ETH $1821, up 2.66%
3.5%. This number has three layers of meaning
First layer: below expectations
Market expected 3.80%, actual was 3.50%, a miss of 0.3 percentage points. This is not a minor miss—against the backdrop of crude oil already rising from $70 to $79. Energy is a tailwind for inflation: with oil prices up nearly 15% and CPI still pushed down to this level, it suggests other components—core goods, the services sector, and housing—are c

I saw a lot of people on WeChat Moments saying that
they’ve gotten slimmer, and prettier too
they’re also looking younger
But when I met them in person offline, I found out they were just topping up for a Meitu XiuXiu membership 😁

💡 bitcoin:native Current price $62,615, the drop over the past 24 hours is less than 1%. The US has already carried out a fourth round against Iran; oil is at $79; gold has broken below $4,100; US stocks are under pressure, and BTC is basically unmoved.
BTC’s past characterization is a risk asset. Every time the Fed hikes rates, every time the stock market drops sharply, every time geopolitical tensions escalate, BTC is the first thing people cut positions on. The logic is that it has good liquidity, high volatility, and high holding costs—when risk-off comes, it’s the first to get sold. The

US 2-year Treasury yield hits a new high since 2025
This is the most direct market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s near-term rate path, indicating that the market has already given up expectations of rate cuts and even started repricing the possibility of rate hikes
At the beginning of 2025, the market was still betting on the Fed cutting rates three to four times for the year, and the 2-year yield was hovering around 4.2%. From there to now, as this figure moves higher, every step along the way has support behind it: input-driven inflation from tariffs hasn’t eased, service-sector inflation