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Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for a modest interest rate increase, saying inflation remains too high, the labor market remains resilient, and the risks of further price acceleration outweigh the risks of weaker employment.
She also warned that rising oil prices and the AI-driven investment boom could add to inflationary pressure.

Global stocks are falling amid a selloff in the technology sector and renewed concerns over stretched valuations among AI-related companies. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell more than 4%, the Shanghai Composite lost around 3%, while Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.6%. U.S. stock futures are also pointing to a weaker open.

Brent is trading at $84 per barrel and is on track to gain more than 10% for the week, as the escalation of attacks between the United States and Iran has intensified concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. This week, the United States carried out several strikes on Iran, hitting an oil tanker near the country’s main export terminal for the first time since the blockade of Iranian ports was reimposed.
President Donald Trump also warned that the United States could strike Iranian infrastructure as early as next week if diplomatic efforts fail to produce a breakthrough. Meanwhile, T

Long-term holders accumulated 371,000 BTC in 30 days.
LTH supply reached an all-time high of 16.34 million BTC.
Supply is scarce. Demand is still absent.
What does this mean for the market?
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #215 👇

At the moment, only 13.5% of STH supply is in profit. Around 86.5% of STH supply remains at a loss.
This points to three things:
1) The market is still in a zone of severe unrealized pain.
2) The price recovery has not yet reached a broad share of STH supply.
3) Conditions are consistent with the late stage of a bear market, but they do not yet confirm a reversal, as the indicator can remain below 20% for months.
The main sign of improvement will appear when the chart moves sustainably back above 20% and then begins moving toward the 40-50% range.

Gold (considered a safe-haven asset) fell toward $4,000 an ounce, resuming its decline as escalating attacks in the Middle East sharply pushed oil prices higher this week, reviving concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

Bitcoin has moved out of the local bearish zone and has remained above zero for a second week: the Regime Score rose from -42 to +34. The main signal today is not the reversal itself, but the rise in component agreement to 79%.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief 214 👇

How Derivatives Distort the Spot Market
Why price can move confidently against the underlying structure, who pays for it, and how funding and open interest reveal how much fuel the move has left.
Adler EDU #24 👇

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish tone during his first appearance before Congress, once again emphasizing the FOMC's firm commitment to restoring price stability.
He welcomed the June inflation data, which came in below expectations, but cautioned against prematurely declaring that the fight against inflation was over.

BTC rose 3.1% while longs were being flushed.
Taker Pressure: +4.1
Liquidation Pressure: -55.2
Buyers absorbed forced selling.
This was real demand, not a short squeeze.
Morning Brief #213 👇

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury held at 4.62%, remaining near a two-month high.
Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, fueling concerns about inflation and the future path of interest rates.

Brent crude rose to $80 per barrel, bringing its weekly gain to more than 10%.
The move followed President Donald Trump's decision to reinstate the blockade of Iranian vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and his announcement that all other cargo moving through the waterway would be subject to a transit fee.

Bitcoin has been below breakeven for six weeks. STH and LTH unrealized P&L has compressed to -0.13.
There has been a rebound from the June low, but the reversal is not confirmed. Everything now comes down to breakeven: a move back above it would shift the regime, while a new low would deepen the losses.
Morning Brief #212 👇

Gold fell toward $4,050 an ounce, remaining under pressure after renewed missile strikes between the U.S. and Iran. The escalation pushed oil prices higher and strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes to curb inflation. On Sunday, the U.S. carried out its fourth strike on Iran in a week in response to an attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship.

The dollar index rose above 101, extending its gains for a second straight session amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil rose 4%, climbing above $74 a barrel. The move followed fresh strikes by the U.S. and Iran amid ongoing tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, the U.S. carried out its fourth strike on Iran in a week in response to an attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship.

GLOBAL RISK ON/OFF +0,63 Neutral/Mixed