AriaNaka

If $ZEC can hold this retest of the $540 breakout pivot as HTF support, we should see a push towards the $620 resistance.
That level is the right shoulder of the head and shoulders top from May, and it's the last meaningful lower high left on the chart to take.
Break above $620, and the macro lower high pattern is invalidated, which is where I would become much more excited.
I personally think we're heading back above $700 if that happens.
The bearish counter, on the other hand, is simple.
If we fail to reach or break the $620 shoulder, we're still following the macro lower high pattern, and

$BTC To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly.
The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it. Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side before eventually exhausting.
Until this share begins to compress, the structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the do

$BTC (2W) - The confirmation signal.
In both 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin had already bottomed before the 2-week MACD crossed bullish.
The signal didn't call the bottom.
It confirmed it.
If you're still waiting for lower prices after this cross...
History suggests you're probably waiting for a bottom that's already behind you.
I already have an alert set for it.

$BTC Short Setup:
We broke out of the rising channel on the LTF and rejected the previous highs (64.6k) on the retest, which is exactly what I was waiting for to enter a Short.
That said, we still haven't got an LTF structure shift confirmation, which makes this setup a bit risky. Make sure you don't over-risk if you're following this one.
It's still a hedge against the long, and if it gets stopped out, we're likely going to sweep the current high one more time, Where I'll secure some more profits from the long.

$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps
Bitcoin hit most of the liquidity, cause it took out the 64k highs from the last week.
Now, we have two equal highs that need to be swept, maybe even a bit higher as said yesterday.
Set alerts right below the following levels to look for a short entry on the lower time frames when we are there:
65.6k, 66.2k, 72.3k (if Bitcoin should close the weekly fvg).
If it goes down from here does mean only one thing: we will see a low somewhere mid range and revisit the range high in a couple of days again aka more chop.

$BTC If we follow the same statistical pattern seen over the past 12 months, BTC would likely derisk for the remainder of the month and push back down.
This is purely data driven with no directional bias.
The only outlier is April’s behavior, where BTC continued higher after the 14th, something that has occurred just once in those 12 instances.
Place your bets Fellas.

$BTC shorted (risky)
> spot putting in bid aggression in at highs
> price exhausting, building 30m 3 drive
> .786 as high of movement
> imbalances below & fundamentals elevated
-> trying to play this into rPOC
4.6R on the table

$BTC position size in 1 year, short positions currently hold the advantage.
However, the situation changes if it breaks through 65.6k.
If it reaches 65.6k, short positions worth $1.05B will be liquidated, and in this case, long positions will gain the upper hand.

$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps
Bitcoin very clear and easy: Liquidity on both sides, see heatmaps, extremely clear levels.
Only trade I'm interested: Finding a short entry from the 66-67k area.
Two possible scenarios to arrive this range high area: Either we get that sweep of the low first (see arrow in the chart), then BTC has the potential to even go to 72k to close the weekly fvg.
Or we go to range high first without taking out the low, but then it will be much more likely only a quick move up and then brutally down.
I don't really care, since I'm only waiting for the short entry.
Set alert

$BTC Pretty standard bear market stuff on the Simple Bands so far!
Break below the mid-line, retest as resistance (orange arrow), and pause halfway to the cycle bottom band which is where we are now.
The cycle bottom band price is 46k and is typically hit twice.

$BTC The 62.2k support is the key level we need to hold if we're going to see an impulsive move to the upside this week.
We're retesting Wave B once again after breaking out of the daily falling wedge. If bullish momentum is truly about to kick in, this is where it should happen. A strong bounce from here would give us a flat Wave 2, leaving more room for Wave 3 to extend towards the upside.
There's liquidity resting on both sides. We front-ran the EQHs, and we also ignored the 61.2k low previously. That's a sign of indecisive price action, and what usually follows is either:
- A whipsaw, eve

$BTC This is exactly how bottoming structures tend to form.
In previous bear markets, price repeatedly swept the highs while leaving the lows untouched. That made it difficult to enter shorts and convinced participants that longs were the safer trade, which is exactly why I was short.
This time, price is repeatedly sweeping the lows, creating fear around entering longs and pushing participants to target lower prices. That doesn't necessarily mean the bottom is in, and further sweeps are still possible.
It's also why I'm long and targeting higher. I remain long. Keep shorting.

$BTC Is Building a Bottom Through a Transfer of Pain
‍Bitcoin adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is revealing two different stages of the same market reset.
NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. It measures the difference between the paper profits and losses held by investors. A negative reading means that, on aggregate, the selected cohort is holding more unrealized losses than profits.
The structure of the Short-Term Holder aNUPL is beginning to improve. Its successive lows have become progressively less negative, even as Bitcoin has continued to revisit the lower part of its price ra

$BTC The Total Altcoin Market Cap held where it had to hold after testing the main support level in this area.
But it remains in this big range.
Fun starts after this crosses back above $500B+ market cap value. Until then we will just get more of the same.
Outperformers will generally keep outperforming while the rest bleeds lower.

$BTC Longing the first POI.
Ideally, we should respect the previous weekly low and avoid breaking below it.
However, from a structure/liquidity perspective, another sweep is still possible. That's why I'm only risking 0.5% on this first attempt.

$BTC The market cap of treasury companies has lost more than $100B since October 2025. Their holdings went from a valuation of $396B to $272B.
Over the same period, the number of BTC held by these companies increased from 953,000 BTC to 1.14 million now.
—> Since May, as BTC reached an already significant undervaluation, their accumulation has slowed sharply, almost coming to a halt.
It’s interesting to note that it was between November 2024 and October 2025 that these companies accumulated most heavily, at a price ranging between $75,000 and $125,000.
Over that period, the number of BTC hel

$BTC You know how CME futures went 24/7 for $BTC ...
What’s interesting is that since then, the last 5 so called “CME gaps” have all acted like magnets, even when the weekend gaps simply don't even exist anymore.
It seems the algorithm hasn’t really changed yet, the stock market being closed still plays a key role in Bitcoin’s direction.

$BTC The Second Low of the Bear Market (solid orange dot) is coming soon. The window for it is August - October this year.
The last important Halving Cycles Theory point was the First Low (hollow orange dot), which came perfectly in its January - March window (February 2026 at 60k).
The cycle bottom (green dot) is set for later, from November this year to January of next year.
Right on track!