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$Gold - The rising prices formation since the March 23 low was violated today with the decline below 4644. There are 2 potential downside targets for the next low: the 1st target is the 200 day MA again(currently at 4260). The 2nd target is the March 23 low at 4100.
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$SPX - Closed above the 2nd monthly resistance. The next resistance is 7431 but I don't expect it to be hit this week despite today's close. I still expect a pullback at some point this week, but it may not happen before Thursday, the day after the FOMC and four MAG 7 earnings.
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$NVDA breaking out to a new ATH on a day the rest of the semiconductor sector sold off wasn't in my cards. The next monthly resistance is $223.
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$BTC - Since the March 29 low it has made higher highs and higher lows. If it falls below the recent short term low at 73786 we would have the 1st indication that the next down leg of the bear market has started.
BTC-0.71%
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What is this nonsense? Microsoft is barely down and the entire daily range is only 1.8%. That is cheap engagement farming.
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$SPX has made some sort of top every 13 weeks since July, whether it's a short term top like in July, or a multi week top like in January. We may see another one next week. I expect rotation, semi stocks will sell off while software stocks will rally, resulting in a down week.
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$MSFT - Despite the 4 week rally it has not confirmed an intermediate term low yet since it has to regain the 20 week MA to do that, but I expect it to be confirmed next week and the rally out of the March low to continue and head to the yearly pivot at 461.
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$META - Unlike most tech stocks it closed the week down. Earnings on Wednesday will determine its next move: continue the rally to the next resistance at 744, or give back some of the gains it made in the last 4 weeks. A weekly close below the yearly pivot at 645 will be bearish.
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$GOOGL - Up 4 weeks in a row and almost back to the ATH at 349. Earnings on Wednesday will determine if it breaks out and heads to the 1st yearly resistance at 381, or gives back some of the gains it made over the last 4 weeks.
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$AMZN - The 1st MAG 7 stock to make a new ATH this week. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at 272. A weekly close above 272 will lead to the 2nd yearly resistance at 314, but given that it's up 4 weeks in a row, it's more likely that it will pull back at 272.
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$SOX is more than 100% above its 200 week MA. It closed above the threshold last week. The only other time it did that was in November 1999, 4 months before the bull market top in March 2000. While earnings are not comparable by any means to then, it's something to keep in mind.
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$TSLA - Closed the week below the yearly pivot again which is a bearish sign. If the market starts selling off next week it's at risk of making a new low for the year. An intermediate term low will be confirmed only if it closes above the 20 week MA.
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$NVDA - 4th up week in a row but it hasn't made a new ATH yet, while all other top 10 SMH components(except for ASML) have already made new highs. Its gigantic market cap continues to be a psychological deterrent. It may not make a new ATH before its next earnings in late May.
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$USOIL - If there's no deal between the U.S. and Iran the price of crude oil will probably keep pushing higher towards the 0.618 retracement of the March high to April low at 104. Obviously, it could go higher than 104 if the hot war resumes, as opposed to the current cold war.
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$Silver - It looks like the bounce out of the March low ended at the 0.618 retracement of the March 3-23 downtrend and we're getting close to another sell signal. A close below 72.59 will likely lead to another decline to 61.
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$Gold - I was expecting the bounce out of the March low to continue towards the 0.618 retracement at 5027. Instead, this week was a down week and price is getting close to another sell signal. A close below 4644 will lead to another decline to 4100.
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$SPX - Made a new high today but it has reached the 2nd monthly resistance at 7166. The 3rd one is at 7431 and will not be reached in April. I expect a pullback to start next week and target the 20 day MA(currently at 6834 but rises every day).
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They're looking for bag holders.
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