金融分析师江远

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Yesterday's indication of the 5.8 bear market bottom has now risen 2000 points!

The 4-hour moving averages are about to converge, and the second wave of upward movement is about to begin. The first wave rose from 5.85 to 6.47, a 6300-point move. The second wave starts from 6.15, and the increase is expected to exceed 6300 points, so I judge it will surge to between 6.8 and 7.
After the 4-hour pullback, next week the 20-period K-line's discounted price will enter the pit. Once it enters the pit, the 20-period moving average will turn upward, and the trend market will begin. The medium-term target is 8.

Subscribed members who want stability can simply do swing trades in the limit order range positions. If you have time to watch the market, you can do swing trades. Swing trades are about taking profit and reducing positions to gamble on the trend, while limit order range positions can be held a bit longer to reduce positions and gamble on small tops or small bottoms.

7.9 Market Analysis, Technical Interpretation, Future Expectations

There are currently several views on Bitcoin's bottom:
The first is 43k
The second is 55k
The third is 60k, which is the current level
Each of these views has its own theoretical reasoning
But the consensus across all three different prices
Is that a bottom will be successfully reached around October this year
For me, regardless of which level it hits
Once September arrives, I will start positioning in some promising coins
This bull run is bound to offer more opportunities than the last one

If it reaches the 60500-61000 area in one go, then it could be a candidate for a rebound. If it continues to decline slowly, then that plan should be canceled!
For now, watch how U.S. stocks move. If they break lower again following the European session, the support level below would need to focus on the 58500-59000 area!

Prediction is about to arrive!
Predicted Bitcoin pullback point around 61000, successfully arrived around 61500
Predicted Ethereum pullback point around 1680, successfully arrived at 1712

Bitcoin's early morning dip failed to break the previous low
Then rebounded on demand, stopping the decline
Now back above 62, consolidating
A night of bearish news couldn't drive prices lower
This itself is a signal for a rebound
BTC, ETH likely can't fall further
Today still primarily expect an initial rally!
Long BTC around 61.8/62.2k
Stop loss 613, take profit target 635 or above

The bottom of this bear market is around 5.8, posting a note to record it! Check back in a few months!

**Subscription Strategy Usage Instructions**
Daily updates: 1 set of levels each for the day session and night session, plus 1 intraday analysis covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and Gold. Each asset has two long/short entry levels; you can choose which assets to trade.
1. **Aggressive Entry (First Level)**
Recommended to monitor the chart and place orders manually. Take-profit references: ETH 15 points, BTC 500 points, SOL 1 point, Gold 10–15 points. Once target is hit, reduce position first and move stop loss to breakeven simultaneously; hold the remaining position to play for trend continuation.

🔥🔥🔥 Night Strategy: Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL—needle-tip to the top!
Ethereum precisely caught the short near 1755 and hit the tip—reached the take-profit point and secured 30+ gains.
SOL 78.8 precisely caught the needle—invincible short position/order, locking in 1 point of profit.
Bitcoin—short near 72750!
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A small knowledge point that many people overlook
If we zoom out to a longer timeframe,
The entire Bitcoin cycle shows a pattern of "sharp peaks, flat bottoms."
Looking at the data, across four cycles,
The median duration at the top is 24 days,
While the median duration at the bottom is 375 days (the number of days when the price is ≤ 2× the bear market low).
- 2011: 137 days
- 2013: 418 days
- 2017: 332 days
- 2021: 532 days
It is clear that the bottom zone lasts far longer than the top zone in every cycle.
The reasons can be summarized as follows:
1. In the late bear market, the tide goes ou

The Fed at 2 AM is the real life-or-death moment. If it's hawkish, it will smash out a cyclical low;
If it's dovish, it will offset the current technical weakness and geopolitical negative situation!

The 63,800 resistance point given yesterday for a downward view turned out pretty good!
For today, a bit tired, don't want to write too much technical analysis. Watch the 65,000–65,500 area for resistance above, and first pay attention to the 60,500–61,000 area for support below. If it breaks down, look at the 58,500–59,000 area for support.

Must a low point occur 12 months after each Bitcoin cycle peak?
2013.11 → 2015.01
2017.12 → 2018.12
2021.11 → 2022.11
2025.10 → 2026.10 ??
The pattern is very consistent. The lows in 2015 and 2018 occurred against the backdrop of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle + liquidity contraction.
Today's macro environment (interest rate trends, US dollar index, correlation with US stocks) is no longer comparable;
This time, the low may be determined by whether US liquidity injection comes earlier or later, especially since November is Trump's midterm election!