ForumMiningMaster

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs.
In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%".
Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers.
The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise.
On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach.
Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happe

Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE:
"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.
"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."
Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity.
Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward.
I've been long on CPO sector, but

Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing.
Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases.

Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027.
Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company.
- Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota
- Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes
- Highlanders x Mitsubishi
- Figure × BMW
- Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries)
- Optimus x Tesla (Internal)
- Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries)
Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer.
If they're not already vertically integrated by one already.
Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitre

Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published.
Showing AI ramping as usual:
- LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory
- LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics
- Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027.
- as much as $145B capex spend this year
“It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”

Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5.
That’s much more cost efficient as well…
Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth among US companies recently)
Never doubt Elon, maybe they might end up leapfrogging Anthropic + Mythos?

$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity.
So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex.

Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT.
Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring.
If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations.

Trump: “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO.
They don't participate. They don't pay.
Cut off all trade with Spain”
Tbh no clue what’s going on anymore…

Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over”
“It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit.
Always an exciting time with markets.

Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors.
For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out.
Since there were warnings that:
Sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely, given Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29 (as evidence).
By second order effect, this is also bullish for upstream laser suppliers too like $LITE and $SIVE that are used in western lidar players.

Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing:
Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power.
It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW, Google, $ORCL, and others."
Just dropped that in with the Meta Muse announcement, and evenn threw in the "expensive" framing with DCs to signal capex.
But little late given we're likely seeing a lot of margin liquidation cascades and heavy losses from media framing earlier.

How is the US so far behind?
Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year.
Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026...
Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to pour into upstream supply chains + rare earths.
Cause this disparity between US vs. China mass production is getting ridiculous...
But it almost feels like the start of Russia/US Space race Sputnik Moment for robotics?

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”.
Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation.
No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves.

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”.
And a $800 PT, from $160. Giving SpaceX a ~$10T valuation.
No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail speak for itself.

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off:
- $META compute news that’s not new
- CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA
- CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA
High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.

Trump: “You have a couple of guys who went short. Those poor ******* they’re in big trouble.
They’re being wiped out. The short guys.
I never liked short guys because they’re betting against the country”.

Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200.
Reddit was doing:
- $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins
- $204M GAAP net income
- 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth.
- Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue
Felt very weird to see a profitable company get dragged down after earnings.
But in hindsight, given the increase hyperscaler capex, the drop felt more like it's more relative opportunity cost more than fundamentals?
Since a lot of inflow poured into $MU / Sk Hynix that are bottlenecked into 2029. Or with laser bottlenecks like $LITE that last into 2029 as well.
Same