XiuHu_charts

I listened to the livestream, but couldn’t get through it halfway!
Lagarde is taking a more hawkish stance,
Walsh reiterated his view that there would be no forward guidance and that the Federal Reserve must remain independent!
Walsh also gave a warning shot: the upcoming July meeting is likely to bring more and more serious disagreements, highlighting tensions within the Fed—most likely related to Walsh’s reforms.
Bailey looks quite troubled, but it’s not that important!
The unified view of Lagarde and Walsh is that monetary policy should be based on more economic data.

I originally wanted to write a long piece of commentary on various assets for July!
But I really don’t know where to start—except for the U.S. Dollar Index!
Gold, crude oil, mainstream coins, and several heavily discussed U.S. stocks are all positioned at key levels.
Apart from Lagarde’s remarks on inflation and rate hikes,
the U.S.-Iran negotiations are uncertain, the Walsh speech is uncertain, and there are also the non-farm payrolls data, the month-end close, and the six-month line… totally speechless!
It’s rare for me to feel this helpless.

If it's been volatile for a long time, don't panic; you become numb once you get used to it!
The ECB Central Bank Forum starts today and lasts until July 1! Central bank officials from around the world are attending, and Warsh is also there.
Warsh and several other major central bank officials will deliver speeches on July 1, marking Warsh's first public appearance since taking office. Therefore, on a macro level, the market will wait to see if Warsh's remarks maintain a hawkish tone to gauge monetary policy (i.e., expectations for rate hikes or cuts).
There's nothing major happening in the cr

PCE is out!
One-sentence summary: In terms of the rate cut path, it is a short-term positive (more of a sentiment boost than actual positive), while it continues to suppress rate cuts in the long term.
All data in the chart combined is generally strong, with GDP and monthly personal spending both running hot.
Maintain a bullish view on the dollar index and bearish view on non-dollar currencies.
Not much more to say—this is what it is, and that's the situation.
Personal opinion, for reference only! Not investment advice. #PCE数据

He is not contradicting himself; they are two different time dimensions!
On June 20, subjectively calming the market; on June 25, objectively pointing out macro risks. 🙂
This bastard, for better or worse, is a big shot, and his opinion changed within just 5 days. #美光财报超预期盘后大涨

Last Thursday, I also posted that the record inflow into U.S. stocks was investors rushing ahead, and sure enough, it declined yesterday!
It seems that choosing to rest yesterday was the right decision; when you don't understand something, it's better to observe more. #SpaceX暴跌16%市值蒸发4000亿

I'm having a hard time understanding the current market; it's too confusing! I'm choosing to take a break for now.
According to the agreements from the US-Iran-Switzerland negotiations, the implementation should boost risk market sentiment, but in reality, oil prices have fallen—specifically the gains from a couple of days ago. Gold and other negatively correlated assets haven't shown a good upward move either; they're still sluggish.
This reflects that the sentiment boost isn't very strong; it only shows a short-term weak rebound!
By Thursday this week, there seems to be little macroeco

The current market trend is largely that if the Switzerland negotiations succeed, there will be a breakout and surge; if they fail, it will continue to oscillate and adjust.
Yesterday, I stayed up late reading news and remembered one of Trump's statements from the day: The Strait of Hormuz will be free for passage during the 60-day ceasefire period!
📌 If an agreement is not reached, even if the Strait of Hormuz charges a fee, it will be collected by the U.S. side.
U.S.-Iran relations have gone from initially wanting to defeat Iran and overthrow its regime, to verbal threats, and now to

Several news updates are changing throughout the day, and most people's emotions are also being affected!
Ceasefire or not, I still stick to my strategy, and at worst, take a loss. #万斯延迟美伊瑞士会谈

Record-breaking weekly capital inflows are most likely a head start!
To prepare for quarter-end portfolio rebalancing and performance payouts, adjust the investment structure. #沃什首秀美联储利率不变

Due to the Dragon Boat Festival,
The US-Iran negotiations have been canceled!😅#美伊14点备忘录曝光

Yesterday's Waller debut was quite hawkish!
Waller is actually pretty impressive; he knows well that there are serious disagreements within the Federal Reserve, so his debut directly announced two things.
1: Create working groups to soften disagreements
2: No more forward guidance in the future; Federal Reserve policies will basically be a blind box from now on.
Trump was quite interesting yesterday; during Waller's speech, he said: "Regarding the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, this may happen."
This is really supporting Waller, as Waller himself is hawkish, and Tru

An increase is a positive enjoyment that adds icing on the cake; buying can further stimulate the release of dopamine because buying equals expecting a rise. The anticipation makes people very excited, which is positive expectation.
Therefore, in this overwhelmingly positive mindset shared by most people, shorting during a decline becomes a daring act of snatching food from a tiger’s mouth!
Since the existence of the secondary market, the concept instilled in people has been buying, rising, and making money.
The most primitive basic education worldwide is to buy low and sell high!
Grou

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has basically been priced in!
So, what are everyone's expectations for Wosh's debut speech🙂‍↔️#美联储利率决议

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Stimulates Market Sentiment to Warm Up.
This Thursday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Waller's first appearance since taking office, is the most critical test of the credibility of this agreement.
Trump's approval rating has been declining recently, and the easing with Iran mainly aims to attract voters and boost public opinion.
But Israel doesn't buy into this; whether it's an agreement or not, the strikes will continue, and the hidden dangers in the Middle East haven't been fully eliminated.
Whether the Strait of Hormuz can be na

On one side, crude oil inventories are running low, and on the other side, there is active promotion of signing the memorandum📝!
It's a gamble. Do you think the Strait of Hormuz will open or not?#原油

Still seeing the US dollar index again, I’ve expressed my USD outlook several times this year!
Still believe it will break through 105. #美伊冲突升级

Do you find these easy to use?
I just can't use these; using them feels very tiring and awkward. #我的Gate交易时刻