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#世界杯冠军预测 Why Are There So Many "Injury-Time Winners" at the 2026 World Cup?
Argentina defeated Egypt 3-2 with a goal in stoppage time. Whether the referee favored Argentina has sparked huge controversy, with "Argentina Dirty" even trending. Setting aside the debate, another "injury-time winner" has led many to feel this might indeed be a hallmark of this World Cup.
Of course, before asking "why," we must first check "if."
Guancha.cn found multiple stoppage-time goals in the group stage.
Turkey beat the USA 3-2 with a goal in the 8th minute of stoppage time. Germany beat Ivory Coast 2-1 with a goal in the 4th minute of stoppage time.
Ghana beat Panama 1-0 with a goal in the 5th minute of stoppage time.
Qatar drew 1-1 with Switzerland after Switzerland's Muhaim scored an own goal in the 4th minute of stoppage time.
Austria vs. Algeria saw a goal in the 6th minute of stoppage time to equalize.
In addition, Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0 with a goal in the 90th minute.
Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands with a goal in the 89th minute.
Senegal lost 2-3 to Norway, pulling one back in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. Excluding these three, only counting strict stoppage-time goals that changed the outcome, there were 5 examples in 72 group matches, a rate of 6.9%.
At the 2022 World Cup, which was smaller with only 48 group matches, Guancha.cn found 3 similar cases, a rate of 6.2%: Iran beat Wales 2-0 with goals in the 8th and 10th minutes of stoppage time. Brazil lost 0-1 to Cameroon with a goal conceded in the 2nd minute of stoppage time. In the final group match, Portugal conceded in the 1st minute of stoppage time, losing 1-2 to South Korea. Assuming five minutes of stoppage time per half, and that first-half stoppage goals aren't considered winners, the period for potential winners is the 5 minutes of second-half stoppage time, or about 5% of the 100-minute game.
Thus, the proportion of winners in the group stage is not exaggerated, just slightly above average. But in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup, the situation changed drastically.
Canada beat South Africa 1-0 in the 90+2 minute. Morocco drew 1-1 with the Netherlands in the 90+1 minute and eventually eliminated them. Portugal scored in the 90+4 minute to beat Croatia 2-1. Belgium, trailing Senegal by two goals, scored in the 86th and 89th minutes. In the 117th minute of extra time, a foul by the opponent led to a penalty after VAR review, and Tielemans scored in the 5th minute of stoppage time. Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in the 90+6 minute. Spain eliminated Portugal 1-0 with a goal in the 1st minute of stoppage time. Finally, Argentina overturned a three-goal deficit to eliminate Egypt, with the last goal scored in the 3rd minute of stoppage time.
Again using strict criteria: excluding Norway's elimination of Ivory Coast and England's elimination of DR Congo (both Africa vs. Europe, both 2-1, both goals in the 86th minute), and also excluding Brazil's penalty by Neymar in the 90+10 minute against Norway (it didn't change the outcome), then in the first two rounds of 24 knockout matches, there were 7 winners or equalizers. That's more than in the group stage, reaching a staggering 29.2%.
What about 2022? The group stage produced 16 teams, so the knockout stage (including the third-place match) had only 16 matches. The only stoppage-time "winner" or "equalizer" was the Netherlands vs. Argentina quarterfinal. The Netherlands equalized 2-2 in the 10th minute of stoppage time to force extra time. Though they lost on penalties, it qualifies as a stoppage-time equalizer. The proportion of 1/16 in the 2022 knockout stage roughly matched 3/48 in the group stage. So the stoppage-time winners and equalizers in the 2026 knockout stage are truly unusual. It should be said that the increase in winners does have objective reasons. Teams that reach the knockout stage are more closely matched in strength, with stronger will and ability to fight to the last minute. For example, Morocco, which beat the Netherlands this time, reached the semifinals in 2022, the first African team to do so. They are now ranked 6th, while the Netherlands is 9th. Egypt's performance against Argentina was clear to all; they are ranked 24th. Ivory Coast and DR Congo, the two other African teams that conceded in the 86th minute, are also strong. With similar technical levels, physical exhaustion is greater, and differences are more likely to emerge at the end.
In 2020, IFAB increased the number of substitutions per match from three to five. But teams may not have adapted well initially to using the extra substitutions, especially for strengthening attacks and taking risks. By this tournament, they may have applied lessons learned over the years, sending on more substitutes to challenge defenses. Belgium's Lukaku, Brazil's Martinelli, and Portugal's Ramos all scored key goals as substitutes. This also reflects the advantage of strong teams' bench depth: although strength is closer, they have deeper foundations and more options.
Among this tournament's stoppage-time winners and equalizers, only Turkey over the USA (ranked 27 vs. 16), Ghana over Panama (65 vs. 44) as upsets, and Qatar's draw with Switzerland (59 vs. 14) occurred in the group stage. In the knockout stage, strong teams also fight to the end, and the bench gap is more fully exposed. Additionally, the precise stoppage-time policy introduced at the 2022 World Cup is surely better implemented four years later, and longer stoppage time (7+ minutes) is more "generously" given. This small change might explain why the proportion of stoppage-time winners in the group stage rose from 6.2% in 2022 to 6.9% this year. But the 29.2% in the knockout stage is still extremely rare.
The well-known sports data platform Opta released data for the 2025-26 Premier League season. In this world-class high-intensity league, 14.3% of matches were decided by goals scored after the 90th minute, more than double any previous season (previously max 7.1%). Clearly, football does see a trend of more last-minute winners, but the current proportion of winners in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage is "more than double" that of the 2025-26 Premier League. Even if none of the remaining 8 matches produce a winner or equalizer, the proportion would still be 21.9%, half higher than the Premier League.
Perhaps this is the charm of this World Cup's knockout stage — it's all about the thrill. Can you find another explanation?

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U A first in history! Argentine referee team officiates France's do-or-die match, World Cup explodes before kickoff
At 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10, the World Cup quarterfinal: France vs Morocco. But before the whistle even blew, this match had already sparked fury among fans worldwide.
Because all five match officials are from Argentina.
Referee Facundo Tello, assistant referees Juan Pablo Belatti and Gabriel Chade, fourth official Darío Herrera, and reserve assistant referee Cristian Navarro — a clean sweep of blue-and-white. For the first time in World Cup history, every on-field official in a single match comes from the same country. And of all countries, Argentina.
Who is Tello? The man who can dish out 10 red cards in one game
Tello, 44, was born in Bahía Blanca, Argentina. He started officiating in Argentina's top flight in 2013 and became an international referee in 2019. He boasts rich big-game experience, having worked the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the previous European Championship, and two Recopa Sudamericana finals.
But what really made him "famous" was the 2022 Copa de la Liga Profesional final between Boca Juniors and Racing Club — he showed 10 red cards in that single match: seven for Boca Juniors, three for Racing Club. Ten red cards. One match.
That's not a referee; that's a "clean sweep."
At the last World Cup, Tello officiated three matches, handing out seven yellow cards and one red (second yellow). Among those three matches was the quarterfinal where Morocco eliminated Portugal 1-0. In other words, this referee is no stranger to Morocco — he witnessed the "Atlas Lions" make history.
But he has never officiated a France match.
His first time refereeing France is a World Cup quarterfinal. The opponent is Morocco. The entire referee crew is Argentine.
French fans can't help but worry?
Why Argentina of all countries? Three fires burn at once. The controversy has three layers of logic, each like a ticking time bomb.
Layer 1: Revenge.
In the last World Cup final, Argentina beat France on penalties to win the title. The French still hold a grudge. A few days ago, in the Round of 16 match between Argentina and Egypt, the referee was Frenchman François Letexier. Argentina had feared beforehand that a French referee might "help France get revenge by knocking out Argentina."
Result? Argentina beat Egypt 3-2 to advance. Egypt fumed over the officiating after the match.
Now it's France's turn — the Argentine referee squad has arrived.
Layer 2: Conspiracy theory of "referee swap."
"A French referee helped Argentina, so an Argentine referee must return the favor to France" — this narrative is spreading like wildfire on social media. Some netizens joked: "A French referee worked Argentina's match; it's only fair to have an Argentine referee work France's." Fans bluntly added: "Reciprocity."
FIFA's move has been slammed by netizens as "not even trying to hide that they want Argentina to win." French media RMC Sport also publicly questioned FIFA's judgment, arguing that as the governing body, FIFA should have anticipated the controversy this arrangement would cause.
Layer 3: Breaking industry norms.
In World Cup knockout matches, the core on-field trio (referee + two assistant referees) are conventionally from the same FA and work as a long-term team. But by convention, the fourth official, reserve assistant referee, and VAR officials should come from other countries, and a full set of officials from a country with major historical grievances should not be assigned to officiate an opponent's key match.
This time, all officials are from Argentina, breaking the industry norm of avoiding conflicts of interest rooted in historical rivalries.
Spanish outlet AS commented: FIFA's decision is "surprising" because "the fourth official and VAR officials usually come from other nationalities."
What does France say? "We don't focus on the referee"
Faced with the overwhelming controversy, France opted for a "cold treatment."
Coach Didier Deschamps was quite calm: "I trust the referees, and our opponent is Morocco, not the referee."
Backup goalkeeper Robin Risser said in a press conference: "We shouldn't fall into the trap of discussing this topic. I think you are exaggerating the issue. If these referees are here at this tournament, it's because they deserve their place and meet the required level."
Defender Dayot Upamecano also stated: "I don't pay attention to who the referee is. We have never done that; we focus on our next opponent, Morocco."
That's what they say, but is France really unbothered?
Don't forget: At the last European Championship, when Tello officiated Scotland vs Hungary, Hungary scored the winner in the 10th minute of stoppage time in the second half, while Scotland's penalty claim was ignored by VAR. After the match, Scotland manager Steve Clarke angrily questioned: "I don't understand how VAR looked at that action and decided it wasn't a penalty... He is Argentine. Why isn't a European referee officiating?"
Now, the same question is being asked about France.
Morocco: This 'civil war' is already complicated enough
Beyond the referee controversy, the match itself already carries plenty of drama.
Four years ago in the Qatar World Cup semifinal, France beat Morocco 2-0. Now the two teams meet again in the quarterfinals. Morocco's squad is practically a "France B team" — 10 of the starting XI were born overseas, including 18-year-old midfielder Benjamín Bouchouari who once captained the France U21 national team, but decided to play for Morocco three months before the World Cup.
A player who once represented France's youth setup is now tasked with blocking France. And now there are Argentine referees to "escort" the match.
France vs Morocco was already a "civil war." The Argentine referee crew has turned it into a "three-way brawl."
The whistle hasn't blown, but smoke already fills social media, where fans have exploded:
"FIFA is truly a pathetic and corrupt organization."
"France gets Argentine referees for every match; FIFA is once again doing everything to hand the World Cup to Argentina."
"Now they don't even bother pretending. All Argentines. Might as well call Messi to watch VAR."
"Why waste time? Just give the World Cup to Argentina."
Meanwhile, France is still appealing a yellow card given to one of their players, but FIFA has not responded. Morocco coach Walid Regragui confirmed that only a certain player is out injured, while the rest are available to play.
On one side, France's terrifying firepower — five wins out of five, scoring 14 goals. On the other, Morocco's iron defense — a 34-match unbeaten run. Mbappé leads the scoring chart with 7 goals, while one player has 5 assists to top the assists chart. Morocco's aces are Brahim Díaz and the in-form Ounahi.
But all these tactical analyses pale in the face of the referee dispute.
The whistle will blow at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10 at the Boston Sports Stadium. The world's eyes are fixed not only on Mbappé and Morocco's defense, but also on the whistle in Tello's hand — and the red cards in his pocket.
Will the history of 10 red cards repeat itself in a World Cup quarterfinal?
This time, who will be the victim?