YunxiangWealthLectureHall

Quarterfinals kick off, first match tonight!
🔴 Tonight 04:00 France vs Morocco
Odds: France 61% vs Morocco 13% (7.2x)
My prediction: France advances, 65% confidence.
But after saying that, I must give a warning:
This World Cup, high odds don't equal weak teams.
Norway 4.4x upset Brazil, Belgium 6x crushed USA 4-1.
7.2x Morocco — can you really completely ignore them?
[Remaining quarterfinal predictions]
🇪🇸 July 11 03:00 Spain vs Belgium 🇧🇪
Spain 59%, Belgium 16% (6x)
I pick Spain, but only 55% confidence.
Belgium is the team I fear most.
🏴 July 12 05:00 England vs Norway 🇳🇴
England 52%

[7/9 Midday | Yunxiang]
BTC 62,900 · ETH 1,750 · SOL 78 · Gold 4,107
Let's talk about a few things today.
FOMC meeting minutes were released last night.
I will interpret the specific wording when I return,
But one thing is certain:
Walsh's hawkish tone has not changed.
What the market is watching next is the CPI on the 14th next week.
In terms of market conditions:
BTC 62,900, pulling back from 64,000.
SuperTrend is still green, the bullish structure is intact.
This is a normal pullback, not a trend reversal.
61,500 is key support; if it holds, continue to be bullish.
Gold 4,107, has broken be

The BTC four-year cycle chart is trending again, with arrows all pointing to $150k. Don't get excited just yet.
I admit it has some truth: BTC does have a halving-driven four-year rhythm, and "long bull, short bear" is real.
But "1064 days up, 365 days down" repeating exactly? That's rearview mirror thinking—knowing the result first, then drawing the frame to fit. There have only been 3-4 cycles in history; n=3 proves no law, let alone supporting an extrapolation "accurate to $150k." Moreover, ETFs, institutions, and the Fed are rewriting the rules, and the cycle is decaying.
Cycles are a comp

【July 8 Evening Market Update | Insight】
BTC 62,800 · ETH 1,760 · SOL 78 · Gold 4,130
Falling from yesterday’s 64,000 to 62,800.
This drop has a few things that are worth clarifying.
1. Strategy Sold 3,588 BTC
They cashed out $216 million to pay preferred stock dividends.
This is the largest single sale in their history.
But do you know what the result was?
The market absorbed the $216 million worth of selling pressure, and BTC only dropped $1,200 today.
This shows that the current buying depth is not comparable to two years ago.
2. FOMC Minutes to Be Released Tonight
The Fed’s hawkish tone is

#世界杯冠军预测
🥇 France (highest probability) Why? Led by Mbappé, the forward line is the strongest configuration in this tournament. With the foundation of the 2018 championship, the most experienced in major tournaments, balanced midfield and defense, no obvious weaknesses. Already safely past Paraguay, normal form. Risk: once Mbappé is injured or suspended, the attacking power drops off a cliff.
One-sentence conclusion: If I had to bet on one team — France. But this World Cup, Norway has already told us: odds ≠ outcome, even Brazil can be eliminated. (Personal analysis, not investment advice. W

#预测世界杯阿根廷VS埃及 It's starting..
There's not much suspense in this match — Argentina advances, 85% certainty. This is Messi's last World Cup; he won't stop at the round of 16!

Last night, two matches—let’s review.
【July 7 Match Reports】
🇪🇸 Spain 1-0 Portugal ✓
The Iberian derby—Spain edged it by a single goal.
C罗’s last World Cup ends just like this.
🇧🇪 Belgium 4-1 thrashed the United States ✗
I predicted the U.S. would have the home advantage—wrong, completely wrong.
4-1 isn’t a loss—it’s a lesson.
The host conceded 4 goals at home; this Belgium side can’t be measured by betting odds.
The pattern of this tournament’s dark horses is becoming clearer and clearer:
Teams with high odds don’t necessarily mean they’re weak. Norway and Belgium are proving that.
【July

【July 7 Market | Guanlan Morning Comment】
BTC 63,500 · ETH 1,780 · SOL 82 · Gold 4,140
Market structure unchanged, bulls still in control.
First, three most important macro variables:
1⃣ US-Iran negotiations enter critical period
Ceasefire agreement signed in April, but Hormuz issue is stuck.
Failure → Oil prices surge → Gold rises again.
Success → Geopolitical premium fades → Risk assets benefit.
Gold at 4140 is pricing in uncertainty.
2⃣ Fed remains hawkish
New Chair Walsh, unabashedly hawkish stance.
Market pricing: October may see a rate hike, not a cut.
This Wednesday July 8 FOMC minutes

The news this week mainly revolves around Wednesday
FOMC meeting minutes (July 8, Wednesday)
$BTC $XAUT ‌
New Fed Chair Warsh presided over his first rate-setting meeting in June:
• Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%
• Hawkish rhetoric: "Inflation is still too high"
• Dot plot raised: year-end 2026 rate forecast from 3.4% to 3.8%
• 9 committee members support a rate hike this year
• Market now fully prices in an October rate hike
Translation into plain English:
Employment is worsening, but the Fed says it is still considering rate hikes.
This is called "stagflation" — weak economy