Next week's macro outlook: US-Iran negotiations enter a critical window, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data upcoming

Breaking news from Mars Finance: On May 31, regarding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said the agreement is close to being finalized and urged Iran to give up its nuclear weapons capability and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, denied that it has approved the final text of the agreement and stressed that there are still disagreements over the related arrangements. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth warned that if negotiations fail, the U.S. is prepared to resume military actions against Iran. If, next week, the U.S. and Iran can further confirm a ceasefire extension or reach a phased agreement, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets could face a new direction.

On the macro front, next week the U.S. will release key economic data, including the May seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figures and the May unemployment rate. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the market will further assess the balance between the slowdown in the U.S. economy and inflation pressures, as well as changes in the future interest-rate path. Key scheduled events are as follows: Monday 11:00, the opening of the Nvidia GTC Taipei 2026 conference, where Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech. Tuesday 13:50, speeches by FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari; 20:30, speeches by FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack on monetary policy; 22:00, U.S. April JOLTs job openings. Wednesday 20:15, the U.S. May ADP employment report; 22:00, the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book; 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30. Friday 01:10, San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; 20:30, U.S. May seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment and the U.S. May unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, AI remains the core main driver behind the rise in global risk assets. As the corporate earnings season moves toward its end, the market will continue to watch the performance of companies such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom to see whether the AI investment boom can continue to spread into more industries. After U.S. stocks ended May at historic highs, the market will also face the traditional test of the “June swoon.” In a midterm election year, June is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, and investors generally expect the market may be entering a period of short-term consolidation.