#油价突破110美元 #Gate广场五月交易分享 Crude Oil Market Analysis (20260506) Is the U.S. backing down? U.S. military "cooled" the conflict! Oil prices retreated on Tuesday

On Tuesday, May 5th, international oil prices experienced a sharp pullback after Monday's rally, nearly erasing all of the previous day's gains. The cooling statement from U.S. military leaders became the key turning point for the market, with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Milley, clearly stating that Iran's attacks on commercial ships and UAE targets in the Persian Gulf on Monday did not constitute a breach of the ceasefire agreement, and the risk of full-scale war was temporarily diminished, releasing market tension.
Just after the May Day holiday, crude oil prices remained highly volatile amid the interplay of three pieces of news:
The first was Iran warning and firing shots at a U.S. warship. On the afternoon of May 4th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired warning shots at a U.S. warship attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz, instantly igniting buying interest and causing a pulse-like surge in oil prices.
The second was an attack on UAE oil tankers and industrial zones. On the same day, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that an oil tanker affiliated with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was attacked by Iran while crossing the Strait of Hormuz; subsequently, the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE was also hit by a drone strike. This exposed ongoing Iranian attacks on U.S. allies.
The third was Iran releasing a "new map" of the strait. The Revolutionary Guard Navy issued a new map of the Strait of Hormuz area, interpreted as a political signal to strengthen control over navigation routes, further increasing uncertainty about the resumption of shipping.
Overall, during the holiday period, crude oil prices showed characteristics of "sideways consolidation with pulse amplification," with geopolitical news periodically triggering sharp short-term fluctuations. However, both the U.S. and Iran did not cross the red line of ceasefire, and the situation remains in a controllable stalemate.

In the short term: physical tightening continues to deepen. Due to ongoing U.S. maritime blockade, Iran's port crude oil loading has plummeted to below 600k barrels per day, forcing large amounts of crude into land-based inventories. The navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not substantially improved, with increasing vessel delays, and a daily supply gap of tens of millions of barrels continues to deplete global inventories. This means that as long as the strait does not return to normal navigation, there is rigid support below for oil prices, and with the prolongation of the blockade, this bottom will gradually rise.
Strategic advice: Currently, oil prices are in a news-sensitive period. The possibility of U.S.-Iran conflict reigniting has not been eliminated, and news of negotiations restarting or easing tensions could trigger short-term emotional shocks at any time. Under the continued blockade of the strait, the drive for oil prices to hit new highs persists; but at the same time, the risk of significant volatility at high levels is accumulating. Avoid heavy long positions above $115, and do not blindly short before the supply gap is resolved; strictly control positions. Given the high uncertainty of geopolitical developments, it is recommended to adopt a range-bound approach and participate cautiously.

Summary: Oil prices sharply retreated, U.S. military statements downplayed war risks, Iran's loading volume fell below 600k barrels per day, and the high-level consolidation pattern continues.