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Latest Developments in Iran-U.S. Negotiations - Iran 14-Point Proposal: Change the Soup, Not the Medicine

Iranian media disclosed on the 2nd the latest negotiation plan conveyed to the U.S. through mediator Pakistan, consisting of 14 points focused on "ending the war." The report states that Iran is awaiting an official response from the U.S. The U.S. previously proposed a plan with 9 points; Iran’s latest proposal emphasizes that all issues should be resolved within 30 days, with the focus on "ending the war" rather than prolonging the ceasefire. The main contents of Iran’s proposal include ensuring no further military aggression, U.S. military withdrawal from Iran’s surrounding areas, lifting maritime blockades, unfreezing Iran’s assets, paying compensation, lifting sanctions, achieving peace on all fronts (including Lebanon), establishing a new management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, etc. Iran’s proposal clearly delineates a firm "red line" and presents a clear roadmap for ending this imposed war.

👉 Overall, Iran’s latest proposal still shows little substantive change; after all the negotiations, it feels like returning to the starting point. Demands such as "U.S. military withdrawal from Iran’s surrounding areas," "lifting sanctions," and "paying compensation" touch on U.S. strategic interests and geopolitical layout in the Middle East, making it difficult for the U.S. to easily make concessions. The U.S. has maintained a long-term military presence in the Middle East as a crucial means to uphold regional hegemony and ensure energy transit security; the demand for troop withdrawal is almost impossible to accept.

📉 For Bitcoin, the potential negative impact of a negotiation breakdown still exists. Coupled with Trump’s statement yesterday that a restart of airstrikes on Iran is not ruled out, the question of "whether the conflict will reignite" remains the "Damocles sword" hanging over crypto and gold bulls. Under these circumstances, the probability of a bullish breakout is relatively low. For Bitcoin and gold, it’s better to focus on short positions; Bitcoin shorts can be placed around 79,000, with a stop-loss above 80,000.