Vestas (VWS.DC), the Denmark-based global wind turbine manufacturer, is expected to sustain performance improvements driven by order recovery. According to Shinhan Investment & Securities, Vestas' Q2 revenue is estimated at €4.417 billion, up 17.9% year-over-year, with adjusted operating profit projected at €184 million, a 223.2% increase. The recovery stems from continued shipments of high-value products and rising average selling prices (ASP). Preliminary Q2 orders reached 2.78GW, up 40% year-over-year, with WindPowerMonthly reporting that H1 orders totaled at least 7.5GW, significantly above the prior year's 5.1GW for the same period. The rebound is partly attributed to US customers meeting safe harbor provisions to qualify for tax credits ahead of a regulatory deadline. Wind turbine orders typically concentrate in the second half of the year, and analysts note that this year's H1 momentum positions Vestas for stronger full-year results compared to recent annual order declines.
Vestas Q2 Performance Outlook: Revenue and Profit Estimates
Shinhan Investment & Securities projects Vestas' Q2 revenue at €4.417 billion, up 17.9% year-over-year, with adjusted operating profit of €184 million, a 223.2% increase. The adjusted operating margin is estimated at 4.2%. The firm attributes the anticipated results to ongoing shipments of high-value turbines and ASP gains. Shinhan notes that Q2 performance is expected to meet market expectations following a strong Q1.
Order Recovery Trends: Q2 and H1 Data
Vestas' preliminary Q2 orders stood at 2.78GW, up 40% year-over-year, according to WindPowerMonthly. Shinhan Investment & Securities estimates that including undisclosed volumes to be announced with earnings, Q2 orders could exceed 3GW. H1 orders reached at least 7.5GW, compared to 5.1GW in the prior year's first half. Annual orders had declined from 18.3GW to 16.8GW and then 16.2GW over recent years, but this year's H1 performance suggests a reversal. Wind turbine orders typically concentrate in the second half due to industry seasonality.
US Market Rebound Driven by Tax Incentive Deadline
US orders recovered to 2.1GW in H1, following declines from 6.7GW to 3.5GW and 2.9GW in recent annual periods. Shinhan Investment & Securities analyst Ham Hyung-do attributed the rebound to customers seeking to meet safe harbor provisions by investing 5% of project costs before a regulatory deadline to qualify for government tax benefits. The analyst noted that US onshore wind pipeline expansion remains robust.
Analyst Views: JP Morgan Upgrade and Morgan Stanley Caution
JP Morgan added Vestas to its "positive catalyst watch" list and raised its target price to DKK251 from DKK216, maintaining an "overweight" rating. The firm cited strong US onshore wind pipeline growth and potential for full-year guidance upgrades in H2 earnings updates. Morgan Stanley raised its target to DKK196 from DKK190 but maintained a "neutral" rating. Barclays reiterated a "sell" rating, reflecting concerns over valuation after recent stock gains and the pace of offshore wind profitability recovery. Reuters reported that Vestas posted Q1 results above expectations due to offshore wind production expansion but warned of geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties. The company maintained its full-year guidance of €20–22 billion in revenue and 6–8% operating margin excluding special items.
Stock Performance and Valuation Outlook
Vestas' stock closed at DKK184.60 as of the end of last month, up 94.3% over one year, with relative returns of 62.9% versus the S&P 500 over the same period. Shinhan Investment & Securities noted that Vestas' 2027 estimated price-to-book ratio (PBR) stands at 4.4x, compared to 8–9x during prior order upcycles. The firm stated that wind stocks typically rally in the second half when orders concentrate, and that 2026 earnings growth now appears certain based on current performance. Analyst Ham added that H2 expectations are likely to be reflected when Q2 results are announced.
FAQ
What are Vestas' Q2 performance estimates?
Shinhan Investment & Securities estimates Vestas' Q2 revenue at €4.417 billion, up 17.9% year-over-year, with adjusted operating profit of €184 million, a 223.2% increase, and an adjusted operating margin of 4.2%.
Why did Vestas' US orders recover in H1?
Vestas' US orders rebounded to 2.1GW in H1, driven by customers meeting safe harbor provisions that require investing 5% of project costs before a regulatory deadline to qualify for government tax benefits, according to Shinhan Investment & Securities analyst Ham Hyung-do.
What is JP Morgan's current view on Vestas stocks?
JP Morgan raised Vestas' target price to DKK251 from DKK216, maintaining an "overweight" rating, citing robust US onshore wind pipeline expansion and potential for full-year guidance upgrades in H2 earnings updates.
