Crane Zeng published a report on Thursday claiming U.S. users drove between $11 billion and $34 billion in trading volume on offshore prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets, despite geo-fencing restrictions designed to block American access. The boutique consulting firm specializing in analytics and political strategy said Polymarket alone accounted for $11 billion to $27 billion of that activity, calling the estimate conservative. Users accessed these platforms via VPNs to circumvent geographic restrictions, the report stated. Prediction markets have operated under evolving CFTC oversight, with offshore platforms previously banned from serving U.S. customers without proper registration as Designated Contract Market license holders.
Crane Zeng Report Estimates 30% of Polymarket Volume From U.S. Users
The report claimed that 12.5% to 31.5% of U.S. prediction market volume occurred on offshore platforms, with approximately 30% of Polymarket trading volume attributable to U.S.-based users over the measured period. The analysis was based on trading volume data provided by Dune Analytics. "Blockchain-based platforms are the most readily accessible, due to the lack of KYC and anonymity afforded by cryptocurrency wallets," the firm stated in the report.
The consultancy's executive summary projected that "U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares of regulated and offshore markets." The report cited Bernstein analysis from April stating that prediction market volume could reach approximately $1 trillion by 2030 at an 80% compound annual growth rate.
In 2024, offshore prediction markets accounted for 84.4% of an estimated $16.8 billion in combined annual volume across tracked platforms, according to the report. In 2025, the offshore share fell to 60.9% of an annual total of $65.0 billion, with combined volumes nearly four times larger than in 2024.
CFTC Banned Polymarket in 2022, Approved U.S. Reentry via QCEX Acquisition
Polymarket, which launched on the Polygon blockchain in 2020, was banned from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after serving American customers without proper registration. At that time, the CFTC treated event markets as highly-regulated swaps. The agency also attempted to block Kalshi from offering election-related markets in 2024, but the startup sued its regulator and won on appeal.
Polymarket has since been granted CFTC approval to reenter the U.S. via a subsidiary after acquiring the regulated derivatives exchange QCEX. While the CFTC now treats prediction markets with a lighter touch during the second Trump term, it still requires companies to register for and receive a Designated Contract Market license. Unlicensed firms, including Polymarket's global venue, remain banned from the U.S.
Regulated U.S. Platforms Processed $74 Billion in Measured 12-Month Period
CFTC-regulated firms including Kalshi, Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx, and Gemini processed $74 billion in the measured 12 months, with Kalshi accounting for $70 billion of that total. This compared to $85 billion collectively from offshore platforms. "Offshore platforms account for 54% of this total, down sharply from 84% in 2024," the report stated.
The report noted that U.S. venues have "narrowed the gap with offshore" platforms, which previously dominated trading volume. Blockchain-based venues serving U.S. users without CFTC oversight include Polymarket, Opinion, Limitless, Overtime, Predict and other smaller exchanges, according to the analysis.
FAQ
What did the Crane Zeng report claim about U.S. users on offshore prediction markets?
The report published on Thursday claimed that U.S. users drove between $11 billion and $34 billion in trading volume on offshore prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets, with Polymarket alone accounting for $11 billion to $27 billion of that activity. The firm called this a conservative estimate and stated that approximately 30% of Polymarket trading volume was attributable to U.S.-based users over the measured period.
Why was Polymarket banned from the U.S. in 2022?
Polymarket was banned from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after serving American customers without the proper registration required by the CFTC. At that time, the agency treated event markets as highly-regulated swaps. Polymarket has since been granted CFTC approval to reenter the U.S. via a subsidiary after acquiring the regulated derivatives exchange QCEX.
How much volume did regulated U.S. prediction market platforms process?
CFTC-regulated firms including Kalshi, Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx, and Gemini processed $74 billion in the measured 12-month period, with Kalshi accounting for $70 billion of that total. This compared to $85 billion collectively from offshore platforms, with offshore platforms accounting for 54% of the combined total.
