U.S. Lawmakers Reach Stablecoin Compromise Last Week, Crypto Bill Odds Jump to 60%

According to Kristin Smith, president of Solana Policy Institute, lawmakers reached a compromise on stablecoin rewards last week, significantly improving the odds of comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation advancing. Smith previously estimated the chances of a comprehensive crypto bill becoming law at roughly 20% to 30%, but raised that estimate to 40% two weeks ago and now puts those odds closer to 60% following the deal. The compromise, finalized by Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Thom Tillis, blocks covered parties from paying interest or yield to U.S. customers solely for holding stablecoins, while permitting activity-based or transaction-based rewards. The agreement clears the way for a second markup hearing in the Senate Banking Committee as early as next week. However, looming ethics provisions—which would restrict President Donald Trump and other federal officials from certain digital asset transactions—could cloud the bill’s path forward.