U.S. April Employment Growth May Slow as Temporary Factors Fade, Unemployment Rate Expected to Hold at 4.3%

According to 金十数据 on May 8, U.S. employment growth may slow in April as temporary factors such as warming weather and striking healthcare workers returning to work lose their stimulative effect. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%, while wage growth is anticipated to accelerate, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged through 2027. Reuters surveys indicate economists attribute some employment volatility to adjustments in the birth-death model this year, which estimates job gains or losses from business openings and closures. Weather, strikes, government layoffs, and labor force shifts from immigration policy changes have also contributed to fluctuations. Citigroup economist Veronica Clark noted that averaging recent months’ data still shows modest positive employment growth.