UBS Projects Federal Reserve to Start Easing Cycle in March 2027

According to UBS, the bank projects the Federal Reserve will launch its easing cycle in March 2027, delaying an earlier timeline. UBS economist Andrew Dubinsky cited persistent core inflation and a strong labor market as reasons the Fed will take a more hawkish stance in the near term, including removing its easing bias at the June FOMC meeting. Following the first rate cut, UBS expects the second cut in June 2027, with the policy rate eventually moving toward 3.00%-3.25%.
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