Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stocks rose 1% in premarket trading on Friday as Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management purchased $51.2 million worth of shares on Thursday. Retail influencer Alexandra Merz renewed speculation that a SpaceX merger announcement could arrive within two to three weeks. The rebound followed a 15% decline on Thursday after Tesla reported second-quarter results that missed Wall Street earnings expectations, with adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share versus the $0.54 estimate, though revenue of $28.24 billion exceeded the $26.36 billion consensus. Merz tied her merger timing estimate to upcoming SpaceX lockup expirations, with the first window opening Aug. 6 when 20% of eligible shares become sellable, excluding CEO Elon Musk's holdings which remain locked until mid-June 2027.
Ark Invest Purchases $51.2 Million in Tesla Shares Across Four ETFs
Wood's Ark Invest bought $51.2 million worth of Tesla shares across four ETFs on Thursday, according to the firm's daily trading disclosures. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) bought 98,782 shares, while the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) added 30,396 shares. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) purchased 21,048 and 9,925 shares, respectively. The purchases came after Tesla's second-quarter results showed rising spending on AI, robotics and autonomous vehicles pressured margins and pushed free cash flow negative. Thursday's 15% selloff extended the stock's monthly decline to 24%, putting it on course for its worst monthly run since February.
Merz Estimates SpaceX Merger Announcement Within Two to Three Weeks
Tesla influencer Alexandra Merz, who posts as "TeslaBoomerMama" on X, said a merger announcement could happen "anytime," reiterating her estimate that it may arrive within the next two to three weeks. Merz tied the potential timing to SpaceX's lockup schedule and said that the first window opens Aug. 6, when 20% of eligible shares become sellable, excluding CEO Elon Musk's holdings, which she noted remain locked until mid-June 2027. Further restrictions are expected to expire from September through November, with all non-Musk lockups ending by Dec. 12, according to Merz. She estimated that consummating a merger could take seven to 12 months after an announcement. Merz has previously said that a merger of equals would be structured around Tesla and SpaceX's negotiated relative values and not an arbitrary midpoint between their current market capitalizations.
Musk Acknowledges Tesla-SpaceX Overlap on Q2 Earnings Call
Merger speculation intensified after Tesla addressed the possibility on its Q2 earnings call. Musk acknowledged "more and more overlap" with SpaceX, particularly around Terafab, but said that any combination would require a formal process. General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart added that the companies already have "numerous beneficial transactions," including work involving Terafab and Digital Optimus. Gene Munster raised his estimated probability of a merger over the next few years from 80% to 90%, citing potential integration across Starlink, Robotaxi connectivity, Grok, Optimus and Terafab. RBC Capital also highlighted expanding collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX through Terafab, Starlink, CyberCab connectivity and Digital Optimus, despite near-term margin pressure from higher Optimus and Robotaxi investment. Canaccord said it wants to see further progress toward a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination alongside stronger Robotaxi deployment and EV momentum.
Stocktwits Sentiment Shifts to Bearish Following Q2 Results
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA flipped to "bearish" from "bullish" levels before its Q2 results amid a 71% jump in 24-hour message volumes. One user said, "Tesla/spaceX.. getting married sooner than you think." Another user said, "$TSLA i buy every big dip I can. You think Elon doesn't want the price to come down before he merges everything he owns. Long term." So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down about 29%. Tesla continues to command a premium valuation, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 170x, by far the highest multiple among the Magnificent Seven stocks.
FAQ
What did Ark Invest buy on Thursday?
Ark Invest bought $51.2 million worth of Tesla shares across four ETFs on Thursday, according to the firm's daily trading disclosures. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) bought 98,782 shares, the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) added 30,396 shares, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) purchased 21,048 shares, and the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) bought 9,925 shares.
When does Alexandra Merz estimate a SpaceX merger announcement could occur?
Merz said a merger announcement could happen "anytime," reiterating her estimate that it may arrive within the next two to three weeks. She tied the potential timing to SpaceX's lockup schedule, noting that the first window opens Aug. 6 when 20% of eligible shares become sellable, excluding CEO Elon Musk's holdings which remain locked until mid-June 2027.
What did Elon Musk say about a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger on the Q2 call?
Musk acknowledged "more and more overlap" with SpaceX, particularly around Terafab, but said that any combination would require a formal process. General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart added that the companies already have "numerous beneficial transactions," including work involving Terafab and Digital Optimus.
