Tesla, Inc. shares rose 1% overnight late Wednesday as Wolfe Research and Goldman Sachs raised second-quarter delivery forecasts, with Wolfe projecting 420,000 vehicles globally versus Wall Street's 400,000-unit consensus and earnings per share of $0.50-$0.52 ahead of the Street's $0.45 estimate. Wolfe cited stronger demand in Europe, China and other international markets, while Goldman Sachs lifted its own Q2 estimate to 420,000 units earlier this week. Wolfe Research also pointed to increasing Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation as providing downside support for the stock, though the firm does not expect any transaction before mid-2027 at the earliest, as TSLA fell 2% Wednesday to end at $396.38.
Wolfe Research Projects 420,000 Q2 Deliveries and Improved Profitability
Wolfe Research expects Tesla to deliver about 420,000 vehicles globally in the second quarter, about 10% above year-ago levels. The brokerage projects automotive gross margins excluding credits in the low-18% range and earnings per share of $0.50-$0.52, ahead of the Street's $0.45 estimate, according to Investing.com. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 units earlier this week, citing stronger demand in Europe, China and other international markets.
Wolfe Links Tesla Valuation to Robotaxi and AI Initiatives
Wolfe stated Tesla's core auto business accounts for only a small portion of its valuation. "The much bigger part, in our view, is tied to confidence around their longer-term (and more significant) initiatives across Robotaxi, Humanoids, and ancillary AI services," the research firm added. Wolfe noted that deployment curves are proving "shallower than previously expected," particularly in robotaxis, and expects Tesla to miss its first-half deployment targets. The analyst flagged competition from Waymo, which plans to expand into 20 cities this year, Mobileye's robotaxi rollout plans, and humanoid robotics efforts from Figure AI and Boston Dynamics.
Wolfe Cites Tesla-SpaceX Merger Speculation as Stock Support Factor
Wolfe stated: "TSLA stock has continued to hold up well even as investors gravitate towards SPCX, with the market assuming increasing likelihood of an eventual TSLA/SPCX merger, which provides downside support." The firm does not expect any transaction before mid-2027 at the earliest. Tesla was mentioned 87 times in SpaceX's S-1 filing, and the companies maintain multiple business relationships: Tesla holds a small stake in SpaceX, SpaceX purchases Tesla products including Megapack systems and Cybertrucks, and both companies are collaborating with Intel on the Terafab AI chip initiative.
Retail Sentiment Turns Bearish on Stocktwits
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was 'bearish' amid 'normal' message volume. One user said, "$TSLA If I were elon I'd crash tesla to buy it later with shares of spcx. spcx is the better brand now." Another user said, "People who have invested in TSLA are the same people investing in Space-X. Unfortunately, all money drained into Space-X and due to technicals, this will dump to 350 in days." Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers this year, down about 12%, making it the group's third-worst performer.
FAQ
What did Wolfe Research forecast for Tesla's Q2 deliveries?
Wolfe Research expects Tesla to deliver about 420,000 vehicles globally in the second quarter, ahead of Wall Street's consensus of 400,000 units and about 10% above year-ago levels. The brokerage also projects earnings per share of $0.50-$0.52, ahead of the Street's $0.45 estimate, and automotive gross margins excluding credits in the low-18% range.
Why does Wolfe Research believe Tesla stock has downside support?
Wolfe stated that TSLA stock has continued to hold up well as the market assumes increasing likelihood of an eventual Tesla-SpaceX merger, which provides downside support. The firm does not expect any transaction before mid-2027 at the earliest. Tesla was mentioned 87 times in SpaceX's S-1 filing, and the companies maintain multiple business relationships including Tesla's small stake in SpaceX and SpaceX's purchases of Tesla products.
