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Stanford Researchers Identify Settlement Manipulation in Polymarket Bitcoin 5-Minute Contracts

Prediction Market

2026-07-16 06:33:10

POLYMARKET0.92%

BTC-1.03%

A new study from Stanford University and Singapore Management University, reported by Cointelegraph, has identified signs of settlement manipulation in Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets. Researchers David Dai, Ruizhe Jia and Shihao Yu found that traders with large positions in short-duration contracts can profit by moving Bitcoin's spot price around the settlement window, exploiting the concentrated price observation point. The study shows sophisticated manipulators captured significant profits, largely at the expense of retail traders. Notably, the researchers found no such manipulation patterns in Polymarket's fifteen-minute Bitcoin contracts, suggesting that lengthening the contract horizon can reduce manipulation incentives and improve market quality.

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