Spotify has requested prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding and clarify they operate no partnership with the streaming service, after discovering manipulated streaming activity that affected song rankings used to settle prediction market bets. The company removed more than 500,000 artificial streams that had pushed Malcolm Todd's 'Earrings' into one of the most popular songs on its charts, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Those inflated numbers had already been used to settle a Kalshi market pegged to the most-streamed Spotify song in the U.S. in June, which attracted $3 million in trading. The case sharpens concerns that prediction markets are creating incentives for bettors to manipulate the underlying events they wager on.
Spotify Removes 500,000+ Artificial Streams and Contacts Prediction Platforms
Spotify removed more than 500,000 artificial streams that had pushed Malcolm Todd's "Earrings" into one of the most popular songs on its charts, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Todd was declared one of the winners on figures published before Spotify finished its investigation, according to the report. Spotify contacted both Kalshi and Polymarket after identifying the problem.
Kalshi is reportedly investigating the matter. Polymarket did not immediately respond to Bloomberg. The Block has contacted the firms for comment.
Caleb Davies, one of the more prominent traders betting on music charts, publicly criticized Kalshi after first calling out the suspicious activity. He argued the platform pointed at Polymarket and reached for plausible deniability rather than confronting the issue and protecting traders, according to Bloomberg.
"All streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation," a Spotify spokesperson told Bloomberg, adding that the company runs detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams and does not pay royalties on them.
Manipulation Mechanics: How Artificial Streams Affected $3 Million Market
The inflated streaming numbers had already been used to settle a Kalshi market pegged to the most-streamed Spotify song in the U.S. in June, which attracted $3 million in trading. Kalshi's odds of Todd finishing with June's top song sat below 3% before the suspicious streaming began, meaning traders who bought in at those prices stood to earn roughly 30 times their stakes.
Artificial streaming is a long-running problem for Spotify and its rivals, typically deployed to inflate artist earnings. Prediction markets add a fresh financial motive to game the numbers.
Prediction Markets Face Recurring Manipulation Concerns
The case sharpens concerns that prediction markets are handing bettors an incentive to manipulate the underlying events they wager on. A U.S. think tank employee was previously found to have edited an interactive map of the Russia-Ukraine war that underpinned a Polymarket bet on Russian territorial gains, and French authorities have investigated whether someone tampered with weather-station data to profit from a market on Paris temperatures.
The news was first reported by WIRED.
FAQ
What did Spotify ask Kalshi and Polymarket to do after discovering stream manipulation?
Spotify asked prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo and make clear that neither operates a partnership with the streaming service, after discovering manipulated streaming activity that affected song rankings used to settle prediction market bets.
How many artificial streams did Spotify remove from Malcolm Todd's song?
Spotify removed more than 500,000 artificial streams that had pushed Malcolm Todd's "Earrings" into one of the most popular songs on its charts, Bloomberg reported Thursday.
How much trading volume did the affected Kalshi market attract?
The Kalshi market pegged to the most-streamed Spotify song in the U.S. in June attracted $3 million in trading before Spotify completed its investigation and removed the artificial streams.
