According to Bloomberg senior reporter Bailey Lipschultz, writing on July 21, SpaceX is expected to release up to $116 billion in sellable shares, with the first unlock starting on August 6. An estimated 911.5 million shares will be released. Currently, 30% of SpaceX’s tradable shares have been shorted, and the shorts have earned about $7 billion since SpaceX hit its all-time high.
SpaceX’s phased lock-up mechanism: full schedule for the first unlock on August 6
According to Bloomberg, this time’s SpaceX unlock uses a relatively rare “staggered lock-up” mechanism, with the details as follows:
First tranche (August 6, 2026, two days after the Q2 earnings report): 911.5 million shares become eligible to trade for the first time, representing about 20% of all shares
Performance condition trigger: If, within the 10 trading days before the earnings report is released, the stock price reaches $175.50 on 5 days (about 46% higher than the current level), an additional 455.8 million shares will be unlocked, bringing the first tranche’s proportion to about 30%
Subsequent phased releases: Gradually release 7% at intervals, with an additional 28% released after the Q3 earnings report is published
Full unlock: Fully unlock 180 days after the IPO
Musk and key investors: The lock-up lasts 366 days and will only be lifted in June 2027
SpaceX stock situation: 30% is shorted
According to market data, since SpaceX’s all-time high on June 16, 2026, the stock is down about 37% and is currently hovering around $119.85.
According to data from financial data provider S3 Partners, 30% of SpaceX’s tradable shares are currently being shorted. As the stock price continues to decline, the short sellers have earned about $7 billion so far. The performance unlock condition ($175.50) is about 46% higher than the current stock price.
SpaceX valuation backdrop: private valuation of $400 billion to xAI merger
Before this year’s IPO, SpaceX’s valuation in the private market was about $400 billion, one year earlier. After completing the acquisition of the AI startup xAI (valued at about $250 billion), SpaceX’s overall valuation surged to around the $1 trillion level at one point.
Even after the $116 billion unlock size, and despite the stock having pulled back 37% from its peak, it still represents a substantial amount of potential unrealized book profit for early-stage private investors who entered at low valuations.
FAQ
What are the first tranche’s timing and size for the SpaceX stock unlock?
According to Bloomberg’s July 21, 2026 report, the first tranche unlock begins on August 6, 2026 (two days after the Q2 earnings report). The first release is about 911.5 million shares (about 20% of shares); if the performance conditions are met, the first tranche proportion can rise to about 30%.
What is the current size of SpaceX’s short position?
According to S3 Partners data, 30% of SpaceX’s tradable shares are currently being shorted, and the short sellers have earned about $7 billion since the stock’s June 16, 2026 all-time high.
When does Elon Musk’s SpaceX stake unlock?
According to Bloomberg, the lock-up period for Musk himself and some key core investors totals 366 days and is expected to be lifted only in June 2027. In the near term, it will not create direct selling pressure on the market.
